28 Oct - Nifty View

In the Nifty View for Expiry Day, it was written that.. "Quite often, a trending move starts on Expiry Days...". The logic is that a lot of traders prefer to stay out on Expiry days. hence, it is the best time to make the crowd Miss the Trade.
A trending move is what we saw on Expiry Day, after the initial volatility because of the RBI News. It was a breakout, which was carried forward into the Muhurat Trading on Diwali. Nifty has broke out from this level after nearly three months. For Positional traders, the only trade one should be in at this time should be a Long Trade. For this long trade, an ideal stoploss should be the breakout level of 5180/5150 level. For those who missed out on Longs till now, another opportunity is to go long above 5230 Spot. One can trade with reduced Lots to manage the larger Stoploss in case of a Fresh Long Trade above 5230 Spot.
There would also be a lot of urge among a section of traders to go Short at these level. A Gentle Warning for them is.. Dont try to be the First One and OutSmart the Market. There will be plenty of opportunities to Go Short if Nifty is unable to hold higher levels and falls again below 5180. As traders, one should only be trading what he Sees on the Charts, and Not what he Believes. And the Charts are turning Bullish after a very long time. If this turns out to be a False Move, we will get a very Violent move on the Downside. But till the time 5180/5150 is not broken, either you Play on Long Side, or Stay out and Wait for right opportunity to Short.

The Nifty option Open Interest charts are given below:
The Bulls have added big amount of Open Interest right at the beginning of the series. This shows some overconfidence from them. The Bears have added OI only at higher levels, upwards of 5300 CE strikes. The range developing as per the Options charts is 5000 to 5400, with 5100 being a minor support and 5200 being a minor resistance. The change in the status of 5200 from being a stiff resistance over the past two months to being a minor resistance for his series shows some level of underconfidence from the bears. The next few days will be interesting to see, where they decide to add OI.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot comes near the Gap level of 5225/5230. if it sustains above this, it short covering may be seen till higher levels of 5270/5280 and then the Gap high of 5325. Above 5325, levels to watch for some resistance are 5365 and 5405. For Positional traders, 5325 and 5405 would be profit booking areas, if nifty reaches those levels in this upmove. On the downside, immediate support for Nifty Spot now comes at the breakout levels of 5180/5175. if slides below this, then further downside towards 5150 will be seen. Below 5150, this breakout can be considered to be a false move, and Positional Shorts can be opened with Stoploss again above 5200 levels.

28 Oct - Nifty Spot resistance at 5230-5275-5325-5365. Support at 5200-5180-5150-5085 - www.niftypower.com

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