Thursday, September 29, 2011

29 Sep: Nifty View

We have reached the expiry of a highly volatile series, which largely traded within a band of 400 points. Nifty closed near the middle of this band just one day before the expiry. 4905 and 4980 seem to be the imemdiate narrow range within the broad band of 4800 and 5200. Breakout from the immediate resistance/ support levels will give the first direction of intended move. Since today the technicals dont matter much, the breakout, if it happens today, should be confirmed by a follow-up move tomorrow.

The Nifty option Open Interest charts are given below:


As is expected before the expiry, there was covering at almost all the strikes, except for some addition at 4900 CE and 5000 CE by the Bears. This is similar to the exuberance exhibited by the Bulls yesterday. Their exuberance backfired. Will the same happen to the Bears today? Overall, 4900 and 5000 are the two 50:50 levels as per the Option Charts. This is also in line with our immediate breakout levels as given above. 4800 to 5100 is the range.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot comes at 4955/4960 levels. Trading above this, it will target the breakout level of 4980, and then towards 5000-5030-5060. On the downside, immediate support for Nifty Spot comes at 4915/4910 levels. Below this, Bears will try to break 4900 for lower levels of towards 4830.

29 Sep: Nifty Spot resistance at 4955-4980-5030-5060. Support at 4915-4880-4860-4830 - www.niftypower.com

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Tuesday, September 27, 2011

28 Sep: Nifty View


Today, Nifty opened gap up and then steadily climbed to cross its strong supply zone of 4930/4940, to reach the next resistance level of 4990. As soon as it had crossed 4930 after the gap up, it was clear that it was a going to be an Up Trend Day, and there was no point in trying to fight it. Now, tomorrow becomes a crucial day, just one day before the expiry. Major resistances lie ahead at 5000-5030 and 5060 levels. It will take something really special to cross and sustain above these levels. overall, this series has been rangebound with volatility, between 4800 and 5200.

The Nifty option Open Interest charts are given below:

Yesterday, we had pointed the overconfidence from the Bears, by seeing the huge addition at 4800 CE level, while Nifty had closed above 4800. Todat, that overconfidence had hit them hard, and they had to cover big at 4700 CE, 4800 CE and 4900 CE strikes. The same exuberance is seen from the Bulls today, who have added a big amount of 39 lacs+ OI at 4900 PE and 5000 PE strikes. This when Nifty is below 5000, does show overconfidence. However, as pointed out yesterday also, the Options data so near to the expiry should be studied for academic purpose only.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot comes at 5000 levels. Sustaining above this, it will target next resistance of 5035 and 5060, where again some Bears are expected to turn up. On the downside, support for Nifty spot comes at 4960 level. Below this, it will slide lower towards 4940-4915 and 4900 levels.

28 Sep: Nifty Spot resistance at 5000-5035-5060-5090. Support at 4960-4940-4915-4900 - www.niftypower.com

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27 Sep: Nifty View

On Monday, Nifty again traded with high volatility, falling 100+ points intraday, and then recovering to close around -30 points. The Bulls were able to save the 200 Week SMA once again. However, major resistances lie ahead at 4930/4940, 4990 and 5030 levels. Unless these levels are crossed, trend should be considered to be down only, and these rallies can be used to build conservative shorts, with stoploss above 5030.

The Nifty option Open Interest charts are given below:


We never rely on the Options data so near to the expiry. Normally, we would expect covering of positions as we come near to the expiry. However, just for academic purpose, we will keep monitoring it. Big addition was done by the Bears from 4700 CE to 5000 CE strikes, while the Bulls only covered their positions at higher strikes. The range as per the Option Charts is 4700 to 5000 as of now.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot comes at 4865/4870 levels, above which, Nifty will test higher levels of 4885-4905 and 4930. 4930/4940 will be a tough level to crack for the Bulls, but if they manage to do so, we may see a short covering rally upto 4990-5030. On the downside, support for Nifty Spot comes at 4820 and then at 4800/4790 levels. Below this, todays low can be tested again, and most probably will be broken also.

27 Sep: Nifty Spot resistance at 4865-4885-4905-4930. Support at 4820-4795-4760-4720 - www.niftypower.com

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Monday, September 26, 2011

26 Sep: Nifty View


On Friday,Nifty opened with a Gap Down, and traded with volatility during the day, to make a low near our third support of 4825 and a high at 4930, before closing at 4864. The market is in a downtrend, and we should look for resistances to sell OR break of supports to sell in a falling market. Right now, 4930-4945 is one important resistance area which has been formed. Above this, 5050-5060 zone would be the next strong resistance area. Till Nifty stays below these levels, consider the short term trend to be down.

The Nifty option Open Interest charts are given below:


The Bulls covered big amount of 57 lacs+ on Friday, from 4700 PE to 5200 PE strikes. The Bears added significant amount only at 4800 CE. This addition of 15 lacs+ OI by the Bears, while the Nifty is still above 4800 shows their overconfidence. For Now, the range as per the Options charts is 4800 to 5100, with 4900 and 5000 being the battlezone level between the Bulls and the Bears. These battlezone levels coincide with the resistances identified at 4930 and 5050.

For Monday, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot now comes at 4885-4905 levels. If manages to cross 4905, it will head towards Friday's high of 4930-4940 levels, where again selling pressure will come. A sustained move above 4940 would lead to 4960-4990 levels. On the downside, support for Nifty Spot comes at 4855/4860 levels, Below this, selling pressure from the Bears will be on, and they will try to break 4800 eventually.

26 Sep: Nifty Spot resistance at 4885-4905-4940-4990. Support at 4850-4820-4795-4750 - www.niftypower.com

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Friday, September 23, 2011

23 Sep: Nifty View

On Thursday, Nifty reacted and fell over 200+ points in a reaction to negative global cues. It was a Trend Day, and all those who could get in early on the break of supports at 5050 and 5020 would have made huge profits. In our Nifty View of 21 September (click here to Read), we had written to Buy an Option of straddle of 5100 CE and 5100 PE and hold till Friday. That option straddle was given in anticipation of a big move after the Fed meeting. The combined price was trading around 150 on 21 September. The combined price on Thursday was 225. A profit of 75 points (50%), and there is more to come on Friday. For now, the trend has definitely turned down, and all rallies should be used to create short positions.

For Friday, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot comes at 4940-4945 levels. Above this, next resistance levels come at 4990-5020 and 5050 levels. Use the rallies towards these levels to create short positions. In a falling market market, look for resistances to Sell and not Supports to Buy. Downside levels to watch are 4905-4860 and 4825.

23 Sep: Nifty Spot resistance at 4945-4990-5020-5050. Support at 4905-4860-4825-4780 - www.niftypower.com

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Wednesday, September 21, 2011

22 Sep: Nifty View

Nifty opened near 5150 on Wednesday, but could not cross its strong resistance area of 5180-5230, and closed around 5130. The strong supply zone of 5180-5230 would take an extraordinary effort from the Bulls to cross and sustain. The trend is sideways as long as Nifty is trading between 5000 and 5180. This series has been contained mostly within a range of 200 points, with volatile moves either side. As we go near the expiry, we may have a breakout/ breakdown move soon.

The Nifty option Open Interest charts are given below:

There was very little activity on the Options front, ahead of the important Fed meeting. The range as per the Options table remain where it has been for most of the series. 4900 to 5200 is the range. 5000 is a minor support, while 5100 is a minor resistance. Important to note that though the Nifty has closed above 5100 for two days in a row, the Call writers at 5100 CE haven't covered their positions and the level remains a minor resistance. Maybe the Call writers expect a Dip below 5100, before any further upmove.

For Thursday, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot comes at 5145/5150 levels. If it manages to stay above this, it will head for 5170/5180 again, where Bears will become active. Above 5170, 5195 and 5225/5230 are the next levels to watch out. On the downside, support for Nifty Spot comes at 5110/5115 levels. If trades below this, it will slide to test its lower level supports of 5080, 5050 and 5020 levels. Break of 5020 will lead to short term trend change from sideways to down.

22 Sep: Nifty Spot resistance at 5145-5175-5195-5225. Support at 5110-5080-5050-5020 - www.niftypower.com

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21 Sep: Nifty View


Today, Nifty opened near to its closing price of Monday, and took off from there, clearing one resistance after another. Today was a trend day, and those who could get in early on the breakout above 5050 or 5080, reaped the benefits of the move. For others, it was just a wait and watch day. Nifty is now at its crucial supply zone of 5180 to 5230 once again. This is happening just before an important news day in the US on 21 September. An Option Straddle would be a good trade to take at this juncture. As for those who are positionally long, 5110 and 5080 would now become important stoploss levels to watch for invalidation of this upmove.

The Nifty option Open Interest charts are given below:

The Bears covered a huge amount of 28 lacs+ OI at 4800 CE to 5000 CE strike. The Bulls added a huge amount of 43 lacs+ OI at 4900 PE to 5100 PE strike. Such exuberance from the Bulls before an important news event does raise some concerns. Still, as given earlier, this might be a good time to buy an Option straddle. Overall, the range from the Option Charts is 4900 to 5200. 5000 is a minor support, while 5100 is a minor resistance.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty spot comes at earlier important level of 5180. Above this, it will head for its next strong resistance of 5225-5230. Above 5230, lies the gap area and will lead to some wild volatile moves. On the downside, support for Nifty Spot now comes at 5105 levels. Below this, it will revisit support levels of 5080 and 5050. If moves below 5050 also, then Bears will take control.

21 Sep: Nifty Spot resistance at 5180-5195-5225-5260. Support at 5105-5080-5050-5020 - www.niftypower.com

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Monday, September 19, 2011

20 Sep: Nifty View


Nifty opened gap down today, and then steadily declined towards its strong support area of 5025, and then traded rangebound between 5020 and 5040. It has created a gap today, and Friday's low of 5070 becomes a crucial resistance now for any upmove. On the downside, it just managed to hold on to the support of 5020, but the bounce from there was not convincing. Tomorrow's movement will hold the key to the short term trend. The levels of 5020 and then 4985 should hold for the upmove to continue. Else, the Bears will be back up again from their sleep.

The Nifty option Open Interest charts are given below:

The Bulls covered a big amount of Put Options today at 5200 PE strike. Apart from this, there is this unusual covering at 4400 PE, 4500 PE and 4700 PE. There is also an unusual addition of almost 6 lacs OI at 5300 CE by the Bears. This has been the characteristic of this series. The additions are happening at OTM strikes, and hey are being covered also with equal speed. Overall, the range remains 4900 to 5200. 5000 is a minor support and 5100 is a minor resistance.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot now comes around 5050 levels. If Nifty manages to stay above this, it will target next strong resistance zone of 5070-5080. Above 5080, Bulls will be in control and take Nifty to higher levels of 5110-5130 levels. On the downside, support for Nifty Spot comes at 5020 levels. Below this, Nifty will slide towards 5005 and 4985 level. Intraday, Bears will be in control as long as Nifty trades below 5000 level, and can even take Nifty towards 4930/4920 level.

20 Sep: Nifty Spot resistance at 5050-5075-5110-5130. Support at 5020-5005-4985-4960 - www.niftypower.com

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Sunday, September 18, 2011

19 Sep: Nifty View

The RBI Rate Hike News became a non-event for the Nifty. After a day of volatile moves, Nifty closed almost the same level as Thursday. Important is, that is did not break its supports on the bad news. Now lookout for a clearance above the resistance levels of 5130 and 5180, for continuation of the upmove. On the downside, 5030/5000 can be a Stop and Reverse level for the Longs.

The Nifty option Open Interest charts are given below:

The Bears added a small amount of 8 lacs+ OI at 5200 CE and 5300 CE. On the other hand, the Bears added a big amount of 23 lacs+ OI from 4900 PE to 5200 PE strikes, the maximum being at 5000 PE of 11lacs+. Apart from this, there was unusual covering at 4500 PE and further addition at 4600 PE. Keeping the recent trend in mind, tomorrow Nifty might move up, if this data is considered. Overall, 5000 has become a good support for Nifty now, and 5100 is a minor resistance. The range remains to be 4900 to 5200.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot comes around 5110 level. If it stays above this, it will target strong resistance zone of 5125/5130. Above 5130, upmove till 5150 and then 5170/5180 will be seen, where again selling pressure will emerge. On the downside, support for Nifty Spot comes around 5070 level. Below this, next supports come at 5050 and then strong support at 5030/5025 levels. Below 5025, Bears will become active again.

19 Sep: Nifty Spot resistance at 5110-5130-5150-5175. Support at 5070-5050-5025-4990 - www.niftypower.com

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Thursday, September 15, 2011

16 Sep: Nifty View


Nifty opened gap up today, slid down to make a low of 4967, and broke out in the afternoon to clear its resistance zone of 5030, and closed near the highs of next resistance level of 5080. Tomorrow is an important news day, with RBI rate hike decision coming. Based on the where Nifty closes tomorrow, short term trend can be decided. Important levels to look out for are 5030, 4990 and 4960 on the downside, and 5120-5180 and 5230 on the upside.

The Nifty option Open Interest charts are given below:

It was once again a day for the Bulls today. The Bears more or less stayed away today, apart from covering of OI at 5200 CE strike. The Bulls added 12 lacs+ OI at 5000 PE and 5100 PE strikes. The range as per the Option Charts is 4900 to 5200. 5000 is a minor support, while 5100 is a minor support. Breakout above 5100 or below 5000 would give tradeable moves now.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot comes at 5080/5085 level. Staying above this, it will enter into next resistance zone of 5120-5150 and 5180. On the downside, support for Nifty Spot now comes at 5030/5035 levels. Below this, further slide towards 4995/5000 and 4980 will be seen. Tomorrow, let the news pass by, and then trade as per the levels in the direction of the trend.

16 Sep: Nifty Spot resistance at 5085-5120-5150-5180. Support at 5030-4995-4980-4960 - www.niftypower.com

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Wednesday, September 14, 2011

15 Sep: Nifty View

Nifty took support again near 4900 level, and bounced smartly today. 5030 was the short term trend deciding level suggested yesterday. Actual high made today was 5026. Now, tomorrow would be an interesting day to watch. If Nifty manages to sustain above 5030/5050 zone, consider the short term trend to be up, for upside targets of 5120 and 5180 initially. Once it clears 5030, keep 4990/4980 to reverse the trades, in the event of a whipsaw.

The Nifty option Open Interest charts are given below:

The Bears covered big amount of 9 lacs+ OI at 5000 CE strike. The day belonged to the Bulls. They added OI of 34 lacs+ at 4700 PE to 5000 strike. Thise series is trading in a broad range of 200 points, giving money both to the Option writers and the intraday Buyers. Overall, the range for the series again shifts up between 4800 and 5200. 4900 is good support, while 5100 is a minor resistance. 5000 is still the battlezone level between the Bulls and the Bears.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot comes at 5030-5040 levels. If it sustains above this in morning trades, it will head for next strong resistance zone of 5070/5080. Above 5080, 5120/5125 will be the target levels. On the downside, support for Nifty spot now comes at 4990/4980 zone. A move below this will take Nifty towards 4945, 4905 levels. Break of 4905 would show panic selling.

15 Sep: Nifty Spot resistance at 5035-5070-5095-5125. Support at 4985-4945-4920-4905 - www.niftypower.com

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14 Sep: Nifty View

In Yesterday's Nifty View, it was written to Sell on all Rallies till Nifty stays below 5030/5050. Today, it made a high of 5030, and then had a furious sell-off of 100+ points, marking a low near our second support. Staying with the trend always pays off well. The resistance zone of 5030-5050 is the immediate short term trend deciding level as of now. Till Nifty stays and trade below these levels, consider the trend to be down. And as always, dont look for supports in a Down market. Look out for resistances to Sell, till the reference level is not breached.

The Nifty option Open Interest charts are given below:


The Bulls did not do much today, except for a small addition at 4700 PE strike. The Bears on the other hand, came in full force today, adding 23 lacs+ OI at 5000 CE to 5200 CE strikes. The range as per the Options table is 4800 to 5200, with 4900 as a minor support and 5100 as a minor resistance. 5000 is the 50:50 level as of now, and is acting as a pivot between 4940 and 5040. Break of this 100 point range, with corresponding change in OI Data, would give an early indication of the coming move in Nifty.

For tomorrow, immediate support for Nifty Spot comes at 4935-4940 level. If it trades below these, it will revisit todays lows and then lower supports of 4885-4855. On the upside, resistance for Nifty Spot comes around4985-4990 level. Above this, it will again make an attempt towards 5030-5050 levels. As given earlier also, breakout above 5050 would turn the short term trend to upside. Till then Sell the Rallies.

14 Sep: Nifty Spot resistance at 4985-5010-5030-5050. Support at 4935-4905-4885-4855 - www.niftypower.com

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Tuesday, September 13, 2011

13 Sep: Nifty View


Nifty opened gap down today at our second support level near 4980, went down to make a low of 4911, and closed right near support levels of 4942. The trend has clearly turned don, and now as long as it trades below 5030/5050, sell on all rallies should be the mantra of the traders.

The Nifty option Open Interest charts are given below:


There was a lot of covering that happened both by the Bulls and the Bears today. Open Interest addition was done by the Bears at 4900 CE and 4800 CE strikes, while the Bears did so at 4700 PE and 4900 PE strikes. After today's move, the range as per the Option table has moved down and is now at 4800 to 5200. 4900 is a minor support, 5100 is a minor resistance, and 5000 is the 50:50 level now. Any pullbacks, should be limited to 5000-5030 now, else Nifty will again test 5100+ levels.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot will now come at 4965-4980 levels. Staying above these, Nifty will attempt 5000+ levels, facing resistance at 5030 and 5050. Only a sustained trade above 5050 will now favor bulls, otherwise sell into all rallies. On the downside, support for Nifty Spot comes at 4905 level. If stays below this, lower level supports come at 4885-4855 and 4830 levels.

13 Sep: Nifty Spot resistance at 4965-4980-5010-5035. Support at 4930-4905-4885-4855 - www.niftypower.com

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Monday, September 12, 2011

12 Sep: Nifty View

Nifty once again failed to cross and close above the strong resistance zone of 5180-5230, and declined more than 90 points on Friday. The Option OI Charts on Friday indicated a downmove, and we got it. Now the next level of supports at 5030 and 4980 are to be watched on Monday. If Nifty closes below these on Monday, the downfall would be assumed to have restarted, and short trades will be preferred.

The Nifty Option Open Interest Charts are given below:



The Bulls would have sensed the impending downfall. The covered 15 lacs+ OI at 5000 PE and below strikes, maximum being at 4900 PE with 8 lacs + OI cut. On the other hand the Bears added a huge amount of 12 lacs+ OI at 5100 CE strikes. The range as per the Options table is 4900 to 5200, with 5000 being a minor support, and 5100 being a minor resistance.

For tomorrow, watch the levels of 5030 and 4980 on Nifty Spot on the downside. Intraday trend will remain negative till Nifty stays below 5030 level. Sell on all rallies below 5030 for targets of 4980 and 4940. However, if it manages to trade and sustain above 5030, then it may recover upto 5080-5085 levels, where again selling pressure will emerge. If manages to sustain above 5085, then a small short covering rally will be seen for 5100+ levels.

12 Sep: Nifty Spot resistance at 5055-5085-5110-5135. Support at 5030-5000-4980-4960 - www.niftypower.com

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Thursday, September 8, 2011

9 Sep: Nifty View


Today, Nifty traded rangebound for most of the day, took support at our first support of 5100 (actual low of 5098), before breaking out of first resistance 5145, to make an intraday high of 5169. It could not cross above the strong resistance zone of 5180-5230. This zone of 5180 to 5230 will be the most crucial, if Nifty has to continue this uptrend. Once this zone is crossed, traders can safely keep a stop and reverse below 5180 and enter fresh longs. However, the Risk: Reward favors shorts as of now, as we approach this zone. The Option Charts will give us more clues.

The Nifty Option Open Interest charts are given below:


First lets look at the unusual data. The Puts added yesterday at 4500 PE levels were covered today. Almost an equal amount of Call were added at 5400 CE today. If Nifty moves down tomorrow, then we will have a pattern in these addition of OI at deep OTM Options. Apart from that, the Bulls added big amount of OI at 5000 PE to 5200 PE strikes. The Bears on the other hand, did not do much today also. Overall, the range as per the Options table is 4900 to 5200, with 5000 being a minor support and 5100 being the 50:50 level between the Bulls and the Bears.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot now comes at 5180-5200 level. If it manages to sustain above this, it will target the gapdown level of 5225/5230. Above 5230 till the gap level of 5325, anything can happen, and will have to be keenly watched. Above that zone, it will be a good idea to go for an Option straddle, as volatility can increase. On the downside for tomorrow, immediate support for Nifty Spot comes at 5125-5130 levels. If sustains below these, it will move lower 5110-5080-5065 and 5035 level.

9 Sep: Nifty Spot resistance at 5180-5200-5230-5260. Support at 5130-5110-5080-5065 - www.niftypower.com

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Wednesday, September 7, 2011

8 Sep: Nifty View


Nifty opened gapup, right at our indicated resistance level of 5080, and then took support there before rallying higher towards 5150 level. In the post of 6 September, we had suggested a breakout trade above 5035, to be confirmed by a close above 5080/5120. It has given a closing right at 5120 today. Now if it manages to sustain above it, next resistance levels to watchout will be 5180 and 5230. Above 5230, there is a big gap resistance. Will it fill the gap. Seems a low probability as of now. But we prefer to trade as per our levels, rather than on Anticipation or Speculation.

The Nifty Options Open Interest Charts are given below:


First the unusual trades that we have been witnessing. Huge amount of OI was covered at 4400 PE and similar amount was added at 4500 PE. Now it definitely looks like some hedging strategies by the biggies, as they are moving the hedge inline with market movements. Other than that, the Bulls added good amount of OI at 5000 PE and 5100 PE strikes. 5000 is now upgraded to a minor support from 50:50 level. 5100 is still a minor resistance. Since Nifty has closed above 5100, a dip towards sub 5100 should not be ruled out. 4900 and below are supports now, while 5200 and above are the resistances.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot now comes at 5145-5150. If sustains above this level, it will move towards strong resistance zone of 5180-5230. Above 5230, there can be panic short covering by the Bears. On the downside, support for Nifty Spot now comes at 5100 level. Below this, it will retest its support of 5080, 5050 and 5025 levels. Trade as per the levels.

8 Sep: Nifty Spot resistance at 5150-5180-5200-5230. Support at 5100-5080-5050-5025 - www.niftypower.com

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7 Sep: Update - Intraday Trade Opportunity

7 Sep: Intraday Trade Opportunity

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

7 Sep: Nifty View


In yesterday's Nifty View, 4945 to 5035 were given as immediate breakout/ breakdown points. 4900 to 5080/5120 was given as the broader range. Nifty made a low of 4942, took support and cleared 5035 in the last hour of trade. It nearly reached its upper end of the range, making a high of 5072. As given yesterday, long trade was triggered above 5035. However, it did not get confirmed as Nifty could not cross 5080/5120 zone. Tomorrow's trade will give more clues to the breakout.

The Nifty Option Open Interest charts are given below:

From last two days, there was surprising addition at 4400 PE. Today it is the turn of 4600 PE and 5300 CE. We will keep monitoring this new trend and see how it develops. Apart from this, the Bulls added a small amount of OI at 4900 PE to 5100 PE strikes. The Bears also added small amount of OI at 5000 CE to 5300 CE strikes. Overall, the range as per the Option charts remain the same as yesterday. 4800 to 5200 is the broad range, with 5000 being the battlezone level as of now. 4900 is a minor support, and 5100 is a minor resistance.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot comes at 5080 levels. Above this, it will head towards next resistance band of 5110/5120. The Bulls will have to really work hard to break these resistance levels, for upside levels of 5150 and 5180. On the downside, support for Nifty Spot now comes at 5020/5030 zone. It should find support at this level, if this breakout has to be valid. If however it trades and sustains below this level, it will test lower levels of 4985-4960 and 4945. Below 4945, selling pressure will resume as written earlier also.

7 Sep: Nifty Spot resistance at 5080-5115-5150-5180. Support at 5020-4985-4960-4945 - www.niftypower.com

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