24 Dec: Nifty View

This month has turned out to be an Option writers paradise. Will it end this way too?

Last few days, we have seen Volatility dipping sharply on the Nifty. Options writers are really making merry this month and it shows in the Options OI table. The Bears are busy writing away Calls at 6000 and 6100 strikes, while the Bulls are working their way with Puts at 6000 and 5900 strikes. 6000 is acting as the pivot for Now. Last few days compression on the Nifty has sure given Option writers some confidence. However, we would advise them not to forget the extreme Volatility we got so used to just few days back. A breakout above 6000 or a breakdown below 5900 would be really fun to watch before expiry, which can give the traders quick 100+ points. Looking at the Options table, we do not expect Nifty to expire outside of the range of 5800 - 6100 as of now. Having said that, breakout/ breakdown above/ below 6000/ 5900 can change the picture quickly. If the writers of either 5900PE or 6000 CE cover, we will have an action packed Expiry.If not, then keep scalping small profits on intraday basis.

For tomorrow, watch the action near 5995-6005 spot for upside moves. If Nifty manages to trade above 6005, it will again attempt 6030 and 6060 on the upside. If it sustains above 6060, we can see some short covering towards 6100 levels. On the downside, watch 5970 Spot for some support. Below this, Nifty may again attempt 5955-5935 and lower levels. Sustained move below 5950 would cause the 5900 CE writers to panic and cover. Do remember that Puts at 5900 and 6000 strikes have been added very recently and these guys would panic first in case of any downmove. On the contrary, the 6000 CE writers had their positions from the start of the series and are already in decent profits. Hence, they would not be in a hurry to book out unless Nifty sustains above 6000 for sometime.

24 Dec: Nifty spot resistance at 5995-6005-6030-6065. Support at 5970-5955-5935-5905 - www.niftypower.com

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20 Dec: Nifty View - Still Indecisive?

In our last Nifty View, we had written that Nifty was in an indecisive mode as of now. It is an Option Writers market as of now, which is operating within a range, although with high volatility. Thursday's decline below 5880 and then 5860 (although momentarily) gave us a false sense that the Bears are finally going to win the battle of 5900. However, it was not to be and we saw a fast short covering rally which took the Nifty up my almost 100 points from the lows.

Although Thursday's movement would have given the Bulls some heart, we would like to watch the movement on Monday to see whether the Bulls have strength to take this market above 6000. The Options OI data also show Call covering by the Bears at 5800, 5900 and 6000 levels and Put addition by the Bulls at the same levels. Still, there is massive OI at 6000 CE levels and we would like to see some balance between the OI of 6000 CE and 6000 PE, before Nifty heads higher.

For Monday, the levels to watch on the upside are 5950-5970 and 5910-5930 on the downside. On any correction, if Nifty again goes below 5915, that should set the alarm bells ringing for the Bulls. The downside support for Nifty then comes at 5880-5850 levels. On the other hand, if we open up above 5960, OR move above 5960/ 5970 spot and then are able to sustain it, then we can see some panic short covering from the 6000 CE writers which can take this market higher to 6030-6060 kind of levels. Keep this levels in mind and trade accordingly till we get a confirmed move either side.

20 Dec: Nifty spot resistance at 5955-5970-5995-6030-6060. Support at 5945-5930-5910-5880-5850 - www.niftypower.com

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16 Dec: Nifty View

The above Chart depicts the state of the Nifty as of now. And that is Indecisive. Both Bulls and Bears will be worried of their positions as of now. For the Bulls, a close/ decisive move below 5880 would be a first alert to reduce their positions and a close/ decisive move below 5820 would, in a all probabilities end this upward correction. For the Bears, Nifty holding 5880 and conquering 5930-5940 would be a cause for worry.

The Options OI data also gives 5900 as a 50:50 level, which has still not been resolved in these three days of traing. Tomorrow being the last trading day of this week (Friday is a holiday), it remains to be seen whether we get some decisive moves tomorrow or whether we will have to wait for next week to get a decisive move. 6000 is still the toughest resistance while 5800 is the strong support as per the Options data of today.

The silver lining in this indecisive period is the Volatility, which is giving the Day Traders some very good opportunities to earn both on the Long and Short sides. For tomorrow, watch the level of 5915-5935 Nifty spot for resistance and 5880-5860 Nifty spot for support. Anyside breakout can give some quick movement either side. Till we get a breakout, trade the broad trading of 5860 - 5935.

16 Dec: Nifty spot resistance at 5915-5930-5945-5965-5995. Support at 5880-5865-5850-5820-5805 - www.niftypower.com

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7 Dec: Nifty View - False Breakout??

In our last Nifty View, we had mentioned the resistance at 6030 and support at 5935-5920 Spot. Nifty opened right at our breakout level and soon conquered it for good upside in the first half. However, we did not believe in the breakout from morning itself (due to the Overbought Indicators), and instead went short at around 6045 spot levels. What a Mistake! In Intraday trading, timing is everything. We made the mistake of going short a bit early while the actual Sell was generated about 2 hrs. later at the very same levels! Nifty just took our Stoploss in the first Short and then fell more than 60+ points. As a policy, we do not take a second call once the stoploss is hit in the first call. Hence, it was a Loss making day for our Subscribers.

For all those who went Long Positionally above 6030 Spot, 5960 should be a decent level of stoploss. Below 5960,Nifty may lose some more points and fall towards 5930-5900 levels. Till the time it is closing above 5930, trend should be considered to be Up only.

The Options OI data indicate more than 10 lacs+ addition at 6000 PE and 6100 PE and more than 8.5 lacs+ addition in 6000 CE and 6100 CE. The OI at 5900 CE and 5900 PE hardly changed. The OI data suggests range of 5900 to 6000 for the Nifty presently. What is surprising though, is the addition of more than 5 lacs+ OI at 6100 PE even on a down day like this. Once the writers of either CE or PE at 6000 & 6100 start to cover, we will see a trending market once again. Till then, trade the range.

For tomorrow, watch the action near 5960 spot and 6010-6015 spot. One can go short below 5960 for an intraday target of 5930-5900 and more. Above 6010 spot, Nifty will again try to test 6030 and then 6065 Spot and more. If manages to trade above 6065/ 6070, we may see some Panic Short covering from the Bears.

7 Dec: Nifty spot resistance at 6010-6030-6070-6120. Support at 5990-5960-5925-5900 - www.niftypower.com

Tips for Nifty

5Dec: Corrective Rally or Trend Reversal?

Is it a Corrective Rally or the Nifty has done a trend reversal and going again for all time highs? That is the question I am getting a lot from our Subscribers these days?

The answer is... Why Worry? Look at the chart posted above. Once Nifty broke out above 5870 kind of levels, it has already given 150+ points on the upside. Now, the earlier resistance of 6030 is again providing stiff resistance on the upside. For next week, we will be closely watching 6030 on the upside and 5935-5920 spot on the downside. Breakout/ Breakdown from these levels can again give a sizable move of 100+ points.

Plan your Trade and then Trade the Plan. Stop worrying where the market is heading. Just be unbiased and see what the charts are telling you. That should be enough to ensure consistent profits.

Happy Trading!

www.niftypower.com

Tips for Nifty

24 Nov: Nifty View

It was a news driven day. Nifty tanked almost 180+ points and then recovered 120+ points in a V shaped recovery to kill the shorters who traded on News. We prefer to avoid trading on such days. However, there was a nice sell call setup in the morning (before the news), which could have been taken by the traders. Nifty had broken our reference level of 5955-5960 in the morning itself and then was unable to sustain above it.

For today, once again watch the levels of 5955-5960 on the upside. Sustaining above this, Nifty can again target 6000-6020 kind of levels. However, real Bullishness will come only if it crosses and sustains above 6020-6030 spot. On the downside, support would come at 5900-5890 levels break of which can lead for another round of at least 30-40 point fall.

They say that "Bottoms are Made in Panic" in the market. Yesterday was one such panic day. Will 5825 turn out to be the bottom of this correction?? Only time will tell. Be ready!

As expiry is near, trade light with your positions.

24 Nov: Nifty spot resistance at 5960-5975-6005-6020. Support at 5930-5905-5890-5855-5825 - www.niftypower.com

Nifty Tips

18 Nov: Nifty View

In my previous Nifty View, it was given that "... the movement of Nifty will tell us whether this was just a relief rally for the sharp correction that we had witnessed last week Or is there further upside left...". Well, Nifty gave us the answer and How! One way down with Over 100+ points.

From now on, all eyes will be on the previous low of 5937. Bulls will try hard to save that level. If the Bears are somehow able to conquer that level, it will spread some Panic among the 6000 PE and 5900 PE writers, and maybe a quick visit to 5850 levels where we may pause again. On the upside, Nifty will face tough resistance now at earlier support zones. It is a sell on Rises as long as we stay below 6130 Spot as of now.

For 18 Nov., Intraday traders watch the levels of 6000 and 6015 on the upside. Above 6015, we may see some weak shorts cover till 6030-6060 levels, where again sellers will emerge. On the downside, minor support for Nifty exists at 5970/5960 spot levels, below which a revisit to previous low of 5935/5940 will happen. Trade on both long and short sides with tight stoploss to gain from this volatile market movements.

18 Nov: Nifty spot resistance at 6000-6015-6030-6060. Support at 5970-5960-5935-5900 - www.niftypower.com

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16 nov: Nifty View

In Yesterday's Nifty View, it was given to look for going long near 6030/6025 region and watch for resistances near 6085/6090 and then 6115/6125 levels. Nifty made a low at 6139 levels and then faced some selling pressure at 6090 levels, before clearing it to make a high near 6128 levels. I have told this many times before and want to reiterate it here. Always place your orders at important Supports and Resistance levels only. Waiting for the right levels to come is half the battle won. After that, just believe in what the Screen is telling You. At NiftyPower, we took two trades today - The first one a short, the second one a long. Both earned us 20+ points giving a total of 40+ points for the day.

Now for tomorrow, 16 November, the movement of Nifty will tell us whether this was just a relief rally for the sharp correction that we had witnessed last week Or is there further upside left. Intraday traders watch the action near 6150/6160 levels on Nifty spot on the upside and 6085-6100 levels on the downside. Trade this range till we get a breakout/ breakdown for further moves till 6200 on the upside and 6030 on the downside. 6100 is the new battle zone for the Bulls and the Bears. It remains to be seen who wins it tomorrow.

16 Nov: Nifty spot resistance at 6120-6145-6160-6200. Support at 6100-6085-6060-6040-6030 - www.niftypower.com

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13 Nov: Nifty views and Weekend Updates

Its a market holiday and generally I do not post my views on weekends. But since I have some time, just thought to share some weekend thoughts with the readers of this Page.

Nifty broke down crucial supports with volumes last week. At this point, I would draw your attention towards this post given on 8 Nov, and appropriately titled "Caution!". Nifty was hovering around all time highs at that point of time. Now it has done a 250+ points of correction from those levels and I see people turning Bears from Bulls again!

You do not need to follow complex TA methods to make money from this market. there is no holy grail to make money. No system which would give you a 100% result. The holy grail is within you. Technical Analysis does not tell you what is going to happen in the market. Nobody can predict the Future. What technical analysis tells you is what is happening Now! If you have the eyes to see it, if you can keep your emotions out and believe in what is happening, if you blindly follow your well tested system, You will surely Make Money in the market.

Have a look at the chart below and also see the post on 8 Nov. again:



In the post on 8 Nov., it was clearly written that the green line had been providing support to Nifty ever since it formed a bottom around 5935-5940 levels. It was also suggested to start reducing the long positions once this green line was crossed. I was not telling you this. The market, the system was telling this. I could only see Bulls at that time. As I am starting to see Bears now.

At NiftyPower, we try to teach our Subscribers this simple method of trading. Have your actionable levels ready. These could be the Pivot levels, Swing highs and Lows, Value Areas, Supports and Resistances, Moving Averages... anything. But have it ready with you before each day and before each trade. Buy and Sell only at the pre-planned levels. Look for Risk:Reward at your predetermined levels and then take the decision to Buy/ Sell accordingly. That, if followed routinely, would lead You to the Holy grail that is within You!

8 Nov: Nifty View - Caution!

The title of today's Nifty View says it all. Caution! Whenever I see extremely Bullish or Bearish Views floating around, I know this is the time to exercise caution. Right now, I see the Bears missing from the street. All I can hear is "Nifty is gonna make a New High". Is it really that important? What is more important - A New High or a sustainable move above the New High. Have a look at the chart below:



Nifty has done over 200 Points while being in Overbought status. While it can stay in overbought status for a long time, it is definitely not the time to initiate New Longs at this point. Wait for some time for the overbought status to cool off, to initiate new long positions.

Have a closer look at the chart and you will find that it has taken support at the green line and never moved below it once it crossed above it after making a low near our Support Zone of 5935-5940. For those who are already long, a close below these lines can be the first indication for reducing long positions. Trail your stoploss to protect your profits. Book partial and re-enter at the right time.

Positionally, till the time it stays above 6095-6060 levels, this uptrend will be considered to be intact. For intraday traders, watch the levels of 6290/6285 spot for supports on Monday. For anyone going long, 6290 can be the Stop and Reverse level for Intraday. I won't recommend any longs on intraday basis also at this point. However, for those who want to go long, can do so above 6335-6340 levels to participate in the frenzy at all time highs.

8 Nov: Nifty spot resistance at 6335-6355-6370-6395. Support at 6300-6290 (strong)-6270-6255-6220 (strong) - www.niftypower.com

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2 Nov: Nifty View

Nifty has given a fine reversal from support zone of 5935-5940 spot (mentioned to subscribers) and continued its uptrend today. 5935 Spot becomes an important level to keep in mind now below 5980.

On Monday, 1 Nov, Nifty opened with a big gap above its resistance zone of 6070-6075 and never tested it during the day. Hence, this becomes another important level to watch out for the Bulls in the days to come. Below this, Nifty may try to fill the gap right down till 6017-6025 levels. Hence, 6070-6060 spot can be the stoploss for those holding positional longs in Nifty Future as of now.

On the upside, stiff resistance exists at 6130 and 6150/6155 levels. Once above 6150, it can go and test the next strong resistance at 6225. This week has some important news reports on the domestic front (RBI policy) as well as rom the International Markets. Hence, we may see some gap ups and gap downs during the week. Hence, trade light on overnight positions.

For the day, watch the level of 6130 and 6150 spot on the upside. Above 6150, some panic short covering can quickly take Nifty to 6180-6220 levels. On the downside, supports exist at 6105-6095 levels, below which, it may test 6070-6055 again. Overall, trade the range of 6070-6150 now until we get a breakout/ breakdown on either side.

2 Nov: Nifty spot resistance at 6130-6155-6180-6225. Support at 6105-6095-6070-6055-6015 - www.niftypower.com

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25 Oct: Nifty View

Nifty gave another breakout above 6030 spot on Thursday which might have signaled the end of the very short term correction that we are witnessing. This level was held well on Friday. Now the support for Nifty should come at 6030-6015 levels and if it holds this and clears 6120-6130, we can see another breakout and attempt towards 6200-6220 spot. Hence, trade the range of 6030 to 6120 with stoploss and reverse trade 15 points away.

For the day, watch out for 6100 spot on upside and 6030 on the downside. Break above 6100 spot can lead Nifty to test 6120-6130 spot levels. Breakdown below 6030 levels can test 6015-6000 levels. As usual, initiate a trade only at the supports and resistance with small stoplosses for higher probability of winning.

25 Oct: Nifty spot resistance at 6080-6100-6120-6130-6145. Support at 6060-6040-6030-6015-6000-5980 - www.niftypower.com

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8 Oct: Nifty View

We have been advising against positional longs from the beginning of the week. The time for going long will definitely come. Grab it with both hands when it does and do not miss out due to fear.

After doing nothing for almost the entire week, Nifty finally gave a breakdown below our reference level of 6140. After that, it was panic selling from those longs who had bought at the supports. Remember, people get trapped in their positions only at the Supports and the Resistances. It is up to the trader to quickly recognize that the support has been broken and go short. That's what we did Today, earning nearly 50+ points in both long and short trades.

For today, we will have to again watch our breakdown level of 6140. In case of any bounceback, it should limit to 6140 or maximum 6165-6170. If manages to get past 6165/70, it would invite some panic short covering/ fresh buying which can again take it back to 6220 and higher. However, if it is resisted at 6140, downward supports would come at 6100-6070 levels. Below 6070, we might see much lower levels. In short, watch the action at 6070 and 6140 levels if they come. Intraday traders can trade this range of 6070-6140 till we get a confirmed move above or below these levels.

8 Oct: Nifty spot resistance at 6140-6165-6195-6215-6225. Support at 6115-6100-6070-6045-6020 - www.niftypower.com

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5 Oct: Nifty View

In Yesterday's Nifty View, it was given that "Trade the range of 6120-6165 till we get a breakout/ breakdown on either side for another 30-40 points." Nifty opened just above 6165 and straight away gave more than 55 points upmove in the very first hour. However, with such a fast upmove, we missed the buying opportunity in Nifty. Then we did the next logical thing. We waited for Nifty to enter its resistance zone at 6215-6220 (see circled portion in chart) and went short for a Gain of more than 50 points!



For 5 Oct, watch the level of 6140 Nifty spot carefully. A few minutes trade below this level would attract fresh shorts in the Nifty for lower levels of 6120/15-6105 and 6075. Upside resistance now comes at 6180 levels above which Nifty will again gather momentum for higher levels above 6200. Hence, 6140 and 6180 would decide the next 30-40 point move on the Nifty. The trend remain up as long as Nifty stays above 6070 which can be a stoploss for those holding positional longs.

5 Oct: Nifty spot resistance at 6160-6180-6195-6220-6235. Support at 6140-6115-6105-6075 - www.niftypower.com

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4 Oct: Nifty View

We have had an explosive expiry on Nifty and an equally explosive follow up. This market has given a clear message to Bears to stay out at the moment. However, I would still not recommend any fresh positional longs. The only reason for this is the extreme sense of Positivity and complacency from the Bulls. In any market condition, the more people there are on a particular side (Bull or Bear), that camp will lose. Currently, I can see more people on the Bullish side. So, stay cautious, trade intraday (long or short), but don't create any fresh longs here. The opportunity to go long will come. Grab it with both hands at that time.




For the day, Support for Nifty comes at 6120. Strong support comes at Friday's breakout point of 6070. One can buy on dips till this level is breached convincingly. Intraday resistance comes at 6165 levels above which Nifty can target 6185-6190 levels. Overall, trend remains bullish. Trade the range of 6120-6165 till we get a breakout/ breakdown on either side for another 30-40 points.

4 Oct: Nifty spot resistance at 6165-6185-6195-6205. Support at 6140-6120-6100-6070 - www.niftypower.com

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Sep 30: Nifty View

MPORTANT: SMS SERVICE WILL BE UNAVAILABLE FOR THE TIME BEING DUE TO BAN ON BULK SMS BY GOI (Click here to Read the News)

Expiry Day and Judgement Day for Ayodhya. Trade light and Trade Safe.

Personally, I do not expect anything special from this expiry. From the options data, an expiry near 6000 nifty levels would keep both the bulls, and the bears happy. In addition, majority traders would like to sit back and digest the News that is going to come out before taking positions. Some long unwinding can come because of this. Any news related movement beyond 5980-5960 and above 6040-6065 on Nifty will show volatile movement due to the high open interest.



For the day, watch the levels of 6000-6005 nifty spot on upside and 5970-5965 on the downside. Break of these levels can easily give 20-25 points either side. Buying near supports and selling at resistances should work for a major part of the day.

Sep 30: Nifty spot resistance at 6005-6020-6035-6065. Support at 5980-5965-5940-5900 - www.niftypower.com

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28 Sep: Nifty View

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In our Yesterday's View, it was given that above 6035-6040, Nifty would target 6065-6080. Nifty did not give us a chance to buy, however, we waited for it to resist around our resistance zone of 6065 and when it reached overbought conditions (see attached chart), took a short trade for a gain of 30-35 points.



It was also given that the 6000 CE and 6100 CE writers would try hard to push Nifty below 6040 on closing basis. Nifty has closed at striking distance of our decision point of 6035-6040. Tomorrow's move will now give an indication of the next move.

For the day, watch the levels of 6030-6010 on the downside for support. Break of 6010 can initiate some intraday selling towards 5980-5960 levels. On the upside, tough resistance now comes near 6050-6065 levels.

Sep 28: Nifty spot resistance at 6050-6065-6090. Support at 6030-6010-5980-5960 - www.niftypower.com

Nifty Option Tips