29 Aug - Nifty View

On Tuesday, two days before Expiry of the August series, Nifty has closed below a crucial support level of 5340/5345 Spot. With this, the short term trend can be considered to have turned down. The oscillators are also now in overbought position and point to a pending downward move. However, the downward momentum was missing after the break of 5345, and it will be prudent for Positional Traders to initiate short positions in stages - some part now, and some part on further break and close below 5290 Spot. The trend is down and long positions should be avoided till Nifty gives a close above 5415/5430 as of now. The levels to watch in between will be 5345 and 5380/5385 Spot. If Nifty does not give a follow through movement below 5345, and infact, is able to move above 5345/5385, then this Expiry will be a rangebound one. A move above 5415, on the other hand, will make this downmove a false breakdown and a shake out move for the Bears. Such a move usually brings a fierce move in the opposite direction. However, we will think about it when such move comes. As of now, the trend is down, and that is what should be the direction of trades.

The Nifty Option OI Charts are given below:


On the Options front, not much is expected so close to the Expiry. However, there was a surprisingly high addition of 10 lacs+ OI at 5200 PE by the Bulls and an even more surprisingly high 18 lacs+ OI at 5400 CE by the Bears. 5300 to 5500 has been the range for this month as per the Option charts. Two days before Expiry, the Option seem to want to shift this range down. Overall, the Option charts indicate supports at 5300 and below levels, while resistances at 5400 and above levels. Looking at the Option charts, it looks like the Option writers are betting on an expiry between 5300 and 5400 for Nifty. Any move beyond this range, and we can see some panic from the losing camp.

For Wednesday, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot now comes at 5340/5345 Spot. Above this, the Bulls will try and take it higher towards 5380, 5400 and 5420 levels, where again some selling pressure is expected. On the downside, support for Nifty Spot comes around 5320/5315 levels. Below this, the Bears will try to push it towards its support level of 5295 and 5260 spot. Below 5260, Gap filling till 5215 level can occur.

29 Aug - Nifty Spot resistance at 5345-5380-5400-5420. Support at 5315-5295-5260-5215 - www.niftypower.com

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27 Aug - Nifty View

Nifty enters into the Expiry week, crucially poised in the Short term. Last week, it held on to its support levels at 5365/5370 Spot, despite some negative global cues. It has closed near the 5390 Spot level, which is very close to the short term trend deciding levels of 5345/5370. Nifty movement in the Expiry week, and how well it defends these levels will give clues for the strength of this rally. As of now, Positional traders have to be Long with a Stop and Reverse around 5340/5345 Nifty Spot.

The Nifty Option OI Charts are given below:

On the Options front, the Bulls covered a huge amount of 25 lacs+ OI at 5400 PE and 5500 PE strikes. The Bears also covered a smaller amount of 7 lacs+ at 5400 CE strike. Going into the Expiry week, the Option Charts are well defined. 5300 and 5500 are the well defined and major resistances, with open interest in 5300 PE and 5500 CE crossing 1 Crore each. 5400 is the clear 50:50 level between the Bulls and the Bears, with almost equal open interest at 5400 CE and 5400 PE strikes.

For Monday, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot comes at 5400 and 5415 levels. Staying above this, the Bulls will re-attempt higher level resistances of 5445 and 5490. On the downside, support for Nifty Spot comes ta 5370 and 5345 levels. Below 5345, the short term trend will turn negative, and the Bears will drag Nifty down towards 5320 and 5295 levels.

27 Aug - Nifty Spot resistance at 5400-5415-5445-5490. Support at 5370-5345-5320-5295 - www.niftypower.com

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21 Aug - Nifty View

Nifty enters in a shortened expiry week, after having a Doji day on Friday. Doji's are generally indicative of indecision among the traders, and are considered as trend reversal patterns. A move outside at range of the Doji can lead to a breakout/ breakdown, with good momentum. Hence, it is also a good time to buy Option Straddles. On Firday, Nifty declined to take support near our reference level of 5345 Spot (actual low 5341), and closed around 5367 level. It also made the high point of this rally at 5399 level. Next week may well turn out to be a short term trend deciding level, when Nifty moves to close out of this range of 5340/5320 to 5380/5400. Positional traders who are Long can now keep a Stop and Reverse at 5320 Nifty Spot level.


The Nifty Option OI Charts are given below:



On te Options front, the Bulls added a small quantity of 12 lacs+ OI at 5300 PE and 5400 PE strikes, while covered 5 lacs+ OI at 5100 PE strike. On te other hand, the Bears did little action at the end of the day, which is surprising given the kind of fall Nifty had in the morning. Overall, 5300 remains the immediate string support for Nifty, while 5500 is an an equally strong resistance, having 90 lacs+ OI. 5400 is the 50:50 level between the Bulls and the Bears.

For Monday, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot comes at 5375/5380 levels. Above this, it will head for Friday's high of 5400. Sustaining above 5400/5405 can lead to some panic covering from the Bears, which can take Nifty to higher levels of 5445 and 5490. On the downside, support for Nifty Spot comes at 5345/5340 levels. Below this, it will slide to enter the recent low and support zone of 5330/5320. Below 5320, the Bears will have an upper hand, and they can Nifty further down towards 5295 and 5260 levels.

21 Aug - Nifty Spot resistance at 5375-5405-5445-5490. Support at 5345-5325-5295-5260 - www.niftypower.com

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16 Aug - Nifty View

On Tuesday, Nifty gave a small breakout above the recent highs, and closed just above it, to keep both the Bulls and the Bears in suspense during the shortened week. As long as Nifty Spot maintains this level of 5380 now, the short term trend should be considered up, and Positional Longs should be opened. There are two more days left in this week, which will provide further clarity on the breakout trade. There are few level to watch out if Nifty is unable to maintain above 5380. First is around 5345 Nifty Spot, which is a horizontal support. Any declines towards this level should be treated as normal and can be a good opportunity to add positions to the Long trade. Below that, next important level is around 5295 Spot, which is the recent low. A close below this level can take Nifty to close the gap zone at 5260-5215. Hence, we will treat 5295 as the trend deciding level as of now, which will be revised after looking at the next two days movement in Nifty.

The Nifty Option OI Charts are given below:

On the Options front, the Bears added a good quantity of 16 lacs+ OI at 5300 PE and 5400 PE strikes. On the other hand, the Bulls added a small quantity of 8 lacs+ OI at 5500 CE and 5600 CE strikes. Overall, the Option charts are also turning slightly Bullish along with the movement in Nifty. Strong resistance has shifted from 5400 to 5500, as there has been covering in 5400 CE by the Bears, and at the same time, addition at 5400 PE by the Bulls. Also, 5300 has now become a strong support level, with more than 80 lacs+ open interest at 5300 PE strike.

For Thursday, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot comes at 5380/5390 levels. Staying above this, the Bulls will have an upper hand, and will try to take Nifty toards higher level resistances of 5405/5445. On the downside, support for Nifty Spot comes at 5345/5350 level. As given earlier, any declines towards these levels should be treated as a good buying opportunity. Below this, the Bears will try to push it lower to test support levels of 5320 and 5295. A close below 5295 will change the Short term trend from Up to Down.

16 Aug - Nifty Spot resistance at 5385-5405-5445-5490. Support at 5345-5320-5295-5260 - www.niftypower.com

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Happy Independence Day to All Readers!

13 Aug - Nifty View

Nifty opened the week up last week, giving a breakout on Tuesday, and then mainly consolidated in a narrow range. The medium term is going to be positive till the Recent Low of 5000 is protected by the Bulls. However, one thing that stands out from last week is the Low Volumes, that followed after the breakout move on Tuesday. Nifty has another strong resistance zone at 5370 to 5395 coming up, and unless and until there is Fresh Buying, the upmove will be in danger. On the downside, the immediate support is going to be the 5280/5260 and then 5220 level, which is the Gap support for this breakout. The short term trend is going to remain positive above this zone. Hence, positional traders can wait for a breakout from the zone of 5260-5390, before taking a Full position. Also remember that next week and after that will be holiday truncated week. Hence, the trend of Low volumes is expected to continue till then end of month.

The Nifty Option OI Charts are given below:


On the Options front, there was little activity on Friday, except for a small addition of 6 lacs+ at 5200 PE by the Bulls. Overall, the Charts also show the tussle between the levels of 5300 and 5400 between the Bulls and the Bears. 5000 stands as the biggest support for Nifty. The Bulls are building support from 5100 to 5300 strikes, where as the Bears are building resistances at 5400 and 5500 strikes. The Option Charts suggests that the Option writers also expect a rangebound move in Nifty in the coming days.

For Monday, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot comes around 5350 level. Above this, it will again try to test recent high near 5375 and then 5400 level. As given earlier, a move above 5390/5400 can attract Fresh Buying, which can lead to another small rally in Nifty. On the downside, immediate support for Nifty Spot comes at 5305/5295 levels. Staying below this, the Bears will try to take it down towards 5280 and 5260 levels. Below 5260, the short term trend will turn negative.

13 Aug - Nifty Spot resistance at 5350-5390-5405-5445. Support at 5300-5280-5260-5220 - www.niftypower.com

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6 Aug - Nifty View

On Friday, Nifty opened down on negative global cues, but recovered smartly to close the gap by day end. Overall, it was a positive week for Nifty, and it maintained its uptrending move. It has closed all the recent Gaps, except the one that was formed on 12th July. That zone of 5260/5270 to 5300/5310 remains a stiff resistance, and Nifty has been unable to cross it despite some very positive global cues. Next week, it is again set to test this resistance zone. How it behaves when it reaches that zone, the volumes and the Options open interest, will give further clues for the next big move.

The Nifty Option OI Charts are given below:


On the Options front, there was little activity on Friday. Bulls were mainly active at 5000 PE strike, while the Bears were active at 5300 CE and 5500 CE strikes. Overall, 5000 still stands tall as the biggest support for this series also. 5500 is the biggest resistance. 5200 to 5400 is the minor range, within which Nifty is trading right now.

For Monday, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot comes around 5230 and then at 5260 levels. As given earlier, the zone of 5260/5270 to 5300/5310 is the toughest resistance for Nifty Spot. A close above this zone is needed for larger rallies. On the downside, support for Nifty Spot comes at 5190 and then around /5170 level. Below 5170, the Bears will get an upper hand, and they will take Nifty down towards 5150 and 5100 level.

6 Aug - Nifty Spot resistance at 5230-5260-5300-5320. Support at 5190-5170-5150-5100 - www.niftypower.com

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