30 April - Nifty View

 

On Monday, Nifty will open for the last trading day of what have been an extremely rangebound month of trading.The monthly closing will be keenly watched by all traders. The Bulls will be hoping for a close above 5250/5270 Spot, as a signal for the end of this correction. on the other hand, the Bears will try to for a close below 5200, to continue the downmove and hope for a momentum move on the downside.Traders who are holding positional shorts, can now keep a stop and reverse at 5280 for their shorts.

The Nifty option OI Charts are given below: 

On Friday, the Bulls added 18 lacs+ OI from 4900 PE to 5100 PE strike. On the other hand, the Bears were active from 5200 CE to 5400 CE strike, adding 14 lacs+ OI. Overall, at the start of the new series, 5200 and 5300 are the two levels to watch for Nifty. Important to note that the support has shifted from 5200 to 5100 from the last series. This can be considered a small victory for the Bears, for the time being. Overall, 5100 and 5000 are the two major supports as per the Option Charts, and 5400 and 5600 are the major resistances.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot comes at 5220-5230 zone. Above this, the Bulls will try and take it towards higher level of 5260-5290 levels. A close above 5290 can signal a short term trend change for Nifty, to be confirmed by a close above 5330. On the downside, support for Nifty Spot comes at 5175-5180 level. Below this, the next major support for Nifty Spot comes at 5155-5160 level. Only below 5155, can the Bears hope for some downward momentum, which has been eluding them till now.

30 Apr - Nifty Spot resistance at 5230-5260-5290-5325. Support at 5175-5155-5120-5070 - www.niftypower.com

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25 April - Nifty View

 

 On Tuesday, Nifty spent majority part of the day within the zone of 5220-5230, which was identified as a resistance zone in Monday's post. It closed slightly up in a rangebound day. The trend remains down, and positional shorts should keep stoploss near cost around 5280-5290 Spot region. Many a times a trending move materializes on/ just before the Expiry day. As the trend remains down, the direction of the expected breakout is on the downside, and any upmove till 5270 can be used to build Short positions, with a Stop and Reverse at 5290 Spot level.

The Nifty option OI Charts are given below: 

So close near to the expiry, not much is expected to happen on the options front. That was the case today. There was covering at almost all the ITM strikes. The Options charts look the same as they did yesterday. 5200 has now become a minor support, and 5300 a minor resistance. With two days to go for expiry, a move outside this 100 point range can bring in a lot of volatility.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot again comes at 5220-5230 zone. Staying above this, the Bulls can take it towards higher level resistances of 5250 and 5285/5290. A move above 5290 will once again trigger positional longs now. On the downside, support for Nifty Spot comes at 5200 and then at 5175-5180 level. Below this, the next supports come at 5150-5125 and 5070 level. Below 5070, bigger falls will come in Nifty.

25 Apr - Nifty Spot resistance at 5225-5250-5290-5325. Support at 5200-5175-5150-5125 - www.niftypower.com

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24 April - Nifty View

 

On Monday, nifty opened above the falling trendline, but could not sustain above it and then had a 100+ point fall, turning the short term trend down. As given yesterday, a move below the falling trendline has triggered Positional Shorts. For these shorts, traders can now keep a stoploss at cost, as it is already in decent profit. On the downside, the 200 DMA should now be the level to watch out for. A break of that can bring some serious fall, as it would indicate a medium term trend change. 5070/5080 should be the last supports to be watched out in this fall. On the upside, all the previous supports will now act as resistances, and traders can Sell on all Rise at these levels, till nifty gives a closing above the trendline again.

The Nifty option OI Charts are given below: 

 

On the Options front, It was a day that belonged to the Bears. They added a huge 43 lacs+ OI from 5200 CE to 5400 CE strike. On the other hand, the Bulls did little addition, but instead covered a huge amount of 25 lacs+ OI from 5200 PE to 5400 PE strikes. Just near to the expiry, the OI charts are changing colors. 5300 has become a minor resistance, while 5200 has become a minor support. There is no level in between. This should get resolved tomorrow.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot now comes at 5220-5230 zone. Only on staying above this, can the Bulls hope for some respite for higher level of 5250 and 5285/5290. A move above 5290 will once again trigger positional longs now, however, it looks difficult after today's breakdown. On the downside, support for Nifty Spot now comes at 5175-5180 level. Below this, the next supports come at 5150-5125 and 5070 level. Below 5070, bigger falls will come in Nifty.

24 Apr - Nifty Spot resistance at 5225-5250-5290-5325. Support at 5175-5150-5125-5070 - www.niftypower.com

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23 April - Nifty View

 On Friday, Nifty after opening down, recovered in mid day, but saw a flash crash in the afternoon session, which sent the futures crashing down. The crash lasted less than a minute, and Nifty managed to close just above the falling trendline. Till the time it is closing above it, consider the trend as up only. If however, it closes below the trendline tomorrow, it can be considered to be a failed breakout, and positional shorts can be initiated. The April series has been rangebound between 5200 to 5400 till now, not giving much gains to the positional traders. Whether the expiry week will bring a trending move, remains to be seen.

The Nifty option OI Charts are given below:

There was a huge covering in Options on Friday. The Bulls covered 26 lacs+ OI from 5200 PE to 5400 PE strikes. On the other hand, the Bears covered 12 lacs+ OI from 5300 CE to 5500 CE strike. Going into the expiry week, the range as per the options charts remains 5200 to 5400, same as it has been for the entire month. 5300 is the 50:50 level as of now.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot comes at 5320-5330 zone. If it manages to stay above this, the intraday trend can be considered to be positive, and the Bulls will try to target next higher resistance 5380 and 5405. On the downside, support for Nifty Spot comes around 5285 level. Below this, the Bears will be in control, and they will try to push Nifty towards lower levels supports of 5245-5220.

23 April - Nifty Spot resistance at 5325-5350-5380-5405. Support at 5285-5245-5220-5170 - www.niftypower.com

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Freak Trade

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There was a freak trade in Nifty on Friday, around 2:30 PM, which caused a sudden dip till 5000 for Nifty future. Huge volume during that period indicates that it might be an error from an institutional trader, rather than a software glitch.
We will wait for the official version from NSE. Till then, it is time to correct the charts by deleting the freak trade.

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20 April - Nifty View

On Thursday, Nifty opened up and after consolidating in the first half, moved up and closed higher just above its resistance zone of 5320-5330. The breakout above the falling trendline is till valid, and positional longs should continue to hold. Stoploss for this longs can now be brought up to around 5250-5240 level, below which, fresh shorts are to be opened. 5285 Spot will be the first level, below which the Bulls will start to lose strength, which will be confirmed on a break of 5250-5240.

The Nifty option OI Charts are given below:


On the Options front, the Bulls added 7 lacs+ OI at 5300 PE strike, in a low volume day. on the other hand, the Bears covered nearly 5 lacs OI at 5400 CE strike. After today's move, 5300 remains the 50:50 level between the Bulls and the Bears. 5200 is the strongest support for this series, while 5400 is the major resistance.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot now comes around 5350 level, above which, 5380 will be the acid test for the Bulls. On the downside, support for Nifty Spot comes around 5320/5330 zone. Below this, Nifty can slide towards 5285 level, where again buying pressure from the Bulls will come. A move outside this 100 point range of 5285 to 5385 will give the next big breakout trade for Nifty.

20 Apr - Nifty Spot resistance at 5350-5380-5405-5450. Support at 5320-5285-5245-5220 - www.niftypower.com


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18 April - Nifty View

On Tuesday, Nifty closed above the falling trendline, breaking the lower lows and lower high pattern that it had been forming since 17th February. This can be the end of the two month long correction period. What is needed now is a follow-up move tomorrow, and preferably a close above the recent high of 5378 Nifty Spot. Positional Short trade, that have been reversed into longs today, and they can now keep an initial stop and reverse at 5220 Spot, which is the low formed after the RBI News today.

The Nifty option OI Charts are given below:

On an UP day like, action is expected from the Bulls, and that is exactly what they did, adding a huge quantity of 16 lacs+ OI at 5200 PE and 5300 PE strikes. The Bulls did not do much today, as expected. overall, 5300 has now become a clear 50:50 level between the Bulls and the Bears. 5200 is a major support, while 5400, which is also near the recent high, is the biggest resistance for this series.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot comes at 5320-5330 zone. Trading above this zone, the momentum will remain with the Bulls, who will try and close nifty above the recent high of 5378. On the downside, support for Nifty Spot now comes at 5285/5290 level, below which, the next supports comes at 5245 and 5220 levels. If breaks and trades below 5220, then this breakout today should be considered a false breakout, and positional shorts can be opened.

18 Apr - Nifty Spot resistance at 5325-5360-5380-5405. Support at 5285-5245-5220-5180 - www.niftypower.com

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16 April - Nifty View

Nifty had a big down day on Friday. It got resisted again right at the declining trendline, joining the recent highs. The Lower Highs and Lower Lows pattern pointed out earlier still remains intact. Hence, it continues to remain a Sell on Rises market. The invalidation level for this downmove is a closing above 5280-5290 zone as of now. On the downside, support comes at the 200 DMA and then around 5070-5080 zone. Below 5070, the medium term trend will turn negative. More on that, if and when the level comes.

The Nifty option OI Charts are given below:

On the Options front, there was very little OI addition done by the Bears in the near strikes. This is surprising considering the big down day on Friday. On the other hand, the Bulls added a huge 12 lacs+ OI at 5100 PE strike. overall, the Options Charts indicate good support for Nifty at 5200 and lower strikes. 5300 is the battleground level, while 5400 and above are the resistances.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot comes at 5220-5230 zone. Above this, the Bulls will try to take Nifty higher towards 5260/5265 levels, where again selling pressure is expected to come. If trades above 5265, then a retest of 5320-5330 will be on the cards, which will decide the short term trend. On the downside, support for Nifty Spot comes at 5185 level, below which, it will slide towards 5165-5130 and 5070 level. A close below 5070 will turn the medium term trend to down.

16 Apr - Nifty Spot resistance at 5225-5265-5290-5325. Support at 5185-5165-5130-5070 - www.niftypower.com

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12 Apr - Nifty View

Nifty opened Gap Down on Wednesday, but managed to recover and closed above the Open Price. Another point to note in today's trade is the rise in volumes. After the breakout of 30th March, trading volumes have shown a declining trend. Todays rise in volumes indicate that a breakout/ breakdown and a trending move might just be around the corner. Presently, the short term trend remains down, and positional traders who sold nifty when it broke 5290 Spot can keep stoploss at cost on closing basis. The real upside move will come only when Nifty is able to close above the declining trendline. Till then, it remains a Sell on Rises market.

The Nifty option OI Charts are given below:

Both, the Bulls and the Bears were active today. The Bulls added 9 lacs+ OI at 5200 PE and 5300 PE strikes. The Bears added a similar 9 lac+ OI at 5400 CE and 5500 CE strike. Overall, the Option Charts indicate a narrow range between 5200 to 5400 for the series. A trending move can come beyond this levels only.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot comes at 5265/5270 levels. Above this, the next importance resistance levels are at 5290/5295 zone. Above these, the short term trend will turn up, and short covering rally can take Nifty to higher levels of 5325 and 5385 levels. On the downside, support for Nifty Spot comes at 5225/5230 levels. Below this, the Bears will have an upper hand hand, and they will try to push Nifty towards lower levels of 5185-5165 and 5130 levels.

12 Apr - Nifty Spot resistance at 5270-5295-5325-5360. Support at 5225-5185-5165-5130 - www.niftypower.com

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9 April - Nifty View

Nifty opens after a 4 day long weekend on Monday. Last week was a low volume traded week, and movement was also lackluster on almost all the 3 trading days. Next week, the volumes are expected to improve, and we might get a trending move. The narrow range of last week has also opened up trading opportunities with small stoploss. On the downside, 5290/5270 is the zone to watch. A closing below this zone will turn the short term momentum down, which can go on to close the gap formed on 30th March. On the upside, Nifty has been forming a pattern of Lower highs and Lower lows on Daily Charts. Till the time it keeps below the falling trendline, the Bias of positional traders should be Bearish. Above this falling trendline, the Bearish pattern will be invalidated, and may signal an end of this correction for New Highs.

The Nifty option OI Charts are given below:

Friday was a nothing day from the Option Writers, except for addition of 11 lacs+ OI at 5100 PE and 5200 PE by the Bulls. At the beginning of the April series, the Option charts indicate support for Nifty at 5200 and lower levels. Resistance is currently developing at 5600 levels, but the numbers from the Bears are too small to conclude anything right now.

For Monday, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot comes at 5325/5330 level. Staying above this, the intraday trend will be positive, and Nifty will head for its next resistance levels of 5355-5385 and 5410 levels. Above 5400/5410 levels, the breakout above the falling trendline can take Nifty to new highs in the short term. On the downside, support for Nifty Spot comes at 5290/5285 levels. Below this, next support comes at 5270/5265 levels. Sustained move below both these levels will turn the short term momentum to down, which can leads to Nifty closing the gap formed on 30th March.

9 April - Nifty Spot resistance at 5330-5355-5385-5410. Support at 5285-5270-5245-5220 - www.niftypower.com

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