Thursday, March 31, 2011

1 April: Nifty View

Nifty ends in the positive for the eighth straight day, expiring above 5800. In the process, it has covered 500+ points from the recent lows around 5350. Does it have steam left for more? Only time will tell. Right now, most of the indicators are trading at overbought zone or entering overbought zone. A correction/ consolidation is due. But how and when it will come is anybody's guess. For the time being, it is better to just trade for the day and avoid carrying any positions home, till the Risk:Reward becomes more favorable.

The Options OI table is given below:

Compared to last months table, where the Bulls went on a rampage in the final days to expiry, this month's table is still subdued. The message from this table is clear - The Bears are not writing too much calls as they realize that the trend is up. The Bulls on the other hand are slow at the moment, because they know that a correction is due. On any downmove from here, these Bulls would rush to write the Puts. What level they choose to add highest OI at, will define the range for this month. As of now, 5800+ seems to be minor resistance area, and 5600 and below the support zones. 5700 is the neutral zone. A correction towards 5700-5740 should be considered normal from here.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot comes 5840-5845 zone. Trading above this, trend of the day would remain positive, and Nifty can test 5865-5885 and higher levels. On the downside, support for Nifty spot comes at 5820 levels, below which, it will again test 5800-5780 and lower levels. As stated above, a correction till 5700 levels should be considered normal for this uptrend. How we react at lower levels, would give further clues to the strength of this uptrend.

1 April - Nifty spot resistance at 5845-5865-5885-5900. Support at 5820-5800-5780-5765 - www.niftypower.com

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