Monday, October 25, 2010

25 Oct: Nifty View

Nifty gave another breakout above 6030 spot on Thursday which might have signaled the end of the very short term correction that we are witnessing. This level was held well on Friday. Now the support for Nifty should come at 6030-6015 levels and if it holds this and clears 6120-6130, we can see another breakout and attempt towards 6200-6220 spot. Hence, trade the range of 6030 to 6120 with stoploss and reverse trade 15 points away.

For the day, watch out for 6100 spot on upside and 6030 on the downside. Break above 6100 spot can lead Nifty to test 6120-6130 spot levels. Breakdown below 6030 levels can test 6015-6000 levels. As usual, initiate a trade only at the supports and resistance with small stoplosses for higher probability of winning.

25 Oct: Nifty spot resistance at 6080-6100-6120-6130-6145. Support at 6060-6040-6030-6015-6000-5980 - www.niftypower.com

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Tuesday, October 19, 2010

19 Oct: Nifty View

In yesterday's Nifty View, it was written that "... While a short trade may be fruitful below 6025 levels, we will not advise it purely on the basis of Risk : Reward...". Well, a short trade did prove useful in the first half, but as advised, we also did not take it as Risk:Reward did not favour it.It was also given that ".... After two days of straight line declines, we expect to see Nifty give an opportunity for both Long and Short trades tomorrow...". Well, anyone who followed the market, can see the decline in the first half and then the recovery of all the losses in the second half.

You don't need any great Technical Analysis skills to make profits in this market. All that is needed is common sense. Just do all the buying and selling at the supports and resistance levels only, be quick to identify when a support has been broken and becomes a resistance and that's it. Most of the time, you will be on the right side of the market. Take an example of today's levels. Today's resistance points were 6060-6085-6130 etc. Supports were 6030-6000-5985 etc. If you see the chart of Nifty, it broke the first support of 6030 (first time we went long at this level - a Mistake that cost us 20 points!) in morning trades, and went till our third support of 5985, bounced back, and kept hovering between 5985 to 6000 for rest of the morning. It tested the support of 5985 3-4 times, then broke 6000 and went to test 6030, fell sharply again to 6000 (This was the point where we went long for a cool gain of 60+ points!!), and then went to break 6030 to test higher resistance at 6060 and then 6085/6090 as given in the Daily View. It reacted at each and every level.

Now for today, the leading indicators have turned from Oversold status and are giving a Buy signal. But the prices have to confirm the upmove by moving above 6105 first and then conquering 6140/6165. For a positional trade, we would advise to sit out and watch the whole day and then take a Long/ Short trade based on whether Nifty is able to close above 6140/6165 today or not. For intraday traders, watch the action near 6100/6105 levels in morning trades. If Nifty manages to hold 6100, it will move higher to test 6140 where again it will face some selling pressure. On the downside, support now comes at 6045-6030 levels. Till it remains above 6030 now, momentum will remain with the Bulls. Below 6030, it may revisit 6000-5985 zone. A knock on 5985 once again would most likely break it for lower levels.

19 Oct: Nifty spot resistance at 6105-6115-6140-6165-6205. Support at 6060-6045-6030-6000-5985-5960 - www.niftypower.com

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19 Oct: Nifty View

In yesterday's Nifty View, it was written that "... While a short trade may be fruitful below 6025 levels, we will not advise it purely on the basis of Risk : Reward...". Well, a short trade did prove useful in the first half, but as advised, we also did not take it as Risk:Reward did not favour it.It was also given that ".... After two days of straight line declines, we expect to see Nifty give an opportunity for both Long and Short trades tomorrow...". Well, anyone who followed the market, can see the decline in the first half and then the recovery of all the losses in the second half.

You don't need any great Technical Analysis skills to make profits in this market. All that is needed is common sense. Just do all the buying and selling at the supports and resistance levels only, be quick to identify when a support has been broken and becomes a resistance and that's it. Most of the time, you will be on the right side of the market. Take an example of today's levels. Today's resistance points were 6060-6085-6130 etc. Supports were 6030-6000-5985 etc. If you see the chart of Nifty, it broke the first support of 6030 (first time we went long at this level - a Mistake that cost us 20 points!) in morning trades, and went till our third support of 5985, bounced back, and kept hovering between 5985 to 6000 for rest of the morning. It tested the support of 5985 3-4 times, then broke 6000 and went to test 6030, fell sharply again to 6000 (This was the point where we went long for a cool gain of 60+ points!!), and then went to break 6030 to test higher resistance at 6060 and then 6085/6090 as given in the Daily View. It reacted at each and every level.



Now for today, the leading indicators have turned from Oversold status and are giving a Buy signal. But the prices have to confirm the upmove by moving above 6105 first and then conquering 6140/6165. For a positional trade, we would advise to sit out and watch the whole day and then take a Long/ Short trade based on whether Nifty is able to close above 6140/6165 today or not. For intraday traders, watch the action near 6100/6105 levels in morning trades. If Nifty manages to hold 6100, it will move higher to test 6140 where again it will face some selling pressure. On the downside, support now comes at 6045-6030 levels. Till it remains above 6030 now, momentum will remain with the Bulls. Below 6030, it may revisit 6000-5985 zone. A knock on 5985 once again would most likely break it for lower levels.

19 Oct: Nifty spot resistance at 6105-6115-6140-6165-6205. Support at 6060-6045-6030-6000-5985-5960 - www.niftypower.com

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Monday, October 18, 2010

18 Oct: Nifty View

First of all, My apologies to all blog readers for the inconsistency in updating the Nifty View on a Daily Basis. Have been very busy lately. However, going forward, I will make it a point to update the blog on a regular basis.

In the past few days, nifty gave some very volatile moves, first giving a false breakout above 6220 Spot and then reaching nearly the all time highs. Since then, it has fallen in a straight line and given a breakdown on the lower side. Will it be a genuine one or a false breakdown again?? That is the big question.

The very short term indicators are reaching oversold state in the Nifty. Options data indicates support near 6000 levels. Beyond that also, good support exists for Nifty spot at 5980-5960-5930 levels. Hence, shorting for a positional trade looks risky at this stage. This does not mean that one should go and create Longs here. If you are already not in a short position, either stay aside or try your hand in Long trades for intraday only at supports.6030-6010 spot can be the stoploss for longs. For a positional long trade, we have to wait and let Nifty show some strength.

For the day, watch the action near 6035-6025 levels. One can try an aggressive long trade near these levels if Nifty opens down and slides further till here. Be quick to book profits near the resistances. On the upside, Nifty will face resistance near 6085-6090. Breakout above 6085-6090, it will again target 6120-6130 levels where again some selling can be seen. While a short trade may be fruitful below 6025 levels, we will not advise it purely on the basis of Risk : Reward. Shorts should be taken only at higher levels near resistance points. After two days of straight line declines, we expect to see Nifty give an opportunity for both Long and Short trades tomorrow. Let's see what is has in Store for us!

18 Oct: Nifty spot resistance at 6060-6085-6130-6150-6180. Support at 6030-6000-5985-5960-5930-5910 - www.niftypower.com

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Tuesday, October 12, 2010

13 Oct: Nifty View

Nifty moved in a broad range today giving opportunity for both long and short trades to traders. Nifty started falling from the opening trades right till our last support zone given at 6060 (actual low 6068.2!). In the past few days, we have been talking about the importance of 6070 and 6140 levels. These levels have still not been breached on closing basis. Till we get a breakout for a broader range, intraday traders can trade this range of 6070 - 6140 for smart gains.

At NiftyPower, we took two trades today. First one a buy at the support zone of 6170, which unfortunately, just touched our stoploss before reversing. We took the long trade once again after Nifty confirmed support at our final support level of 6060. This trade gave us good 25+ points.


Now for 13 Oct, the support for Nifty still comes at 6070, below which 6040 can be expected after a minor bounce from 6060 levels. The high OI at 6200 PE indicates a good support near those levels, which can get tested if 6040 is breached. On the upside, immediate resistance for Nifty comes at 6110-6120 levels above which it can again test 6140/45 and 6175/80 levels. Trade this market with both long and short trades till we break the range of 6070-6140 on closing basis.

13 Oct: Nifty spot resistance at 6110-6120-6145-6175-6185. Support at 6090-6070-6060-6040 - www.niftypower.com

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Sunday, October 10, 2010

11 Oct: Nifty View

In the Nifty View of 7 Oct., it was given that "........watch the action at 6070 and 6140 levels if they come. Intraday traders can trade this range of 6070-6140 till we get a confirmed move above or below these levels....". Nifty made a high at 6147 at opening itself and then started falling to make a low at 6167. At NiftyPower, we went long near the support levels (red circled region in chart) for easy 20+ points of gain.


Now for 11 Oct, strong support for Nifty still comes at 6070/6060. Resistance for the upmove will now come at 6125 and then again at 6140-6145 levels.Above 6145, Nifty will trade with a positive bias and would again enter the trading range of 6140-6220. Intraday traders watch the action at 6100 levels for directional clues. If Nifty manages to hold 6100, it can go on to test 6125 and then higher levels. Failure to hold 6100, however, would invite fresh shorts for break of supports.

11 Oct: Nifty spot resistance at 6125-6145-6160-6185. Support at 6100-6085-6070-6060-6035 - www.niftypower.com

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Friday, October 8, 2010

8 Oct: Nifty View

We have been advising against positional longs from the beginning of the week. The time for going long will definitely come. Grab it with both hands when it does and do not miss out due to fear.

After doing nothing for almost the entire week, Nifty finally gave a breakdown below our reference level of 6140. After that, it was panic selling from those longs who had bought at the supports. Remember, people get trapped in their positions only at the Supports and the Resistances. It is up to the trader to quickly recognize that the support has been broken and go short. That's what we did Today, earning nearly 50+ points in both long and short trades.

For today, we will have to again watch our breakdown level of 6140. In case of any bounceback, it should limit to 6140 or maximum 6165-6170. If manages to get past 6165/70, it would invite some panic short covering/ fresh buying which can again take it back to 6220 and higher. However, if it is resisted at 6140, downward supports would come at 6100-6070 levels. Below 6070, we might see much lower levels. In short, watch the action at 6070 and 6140 levels if they come. Intraday traders can trade this range of 6070-6140 till we get a confirmed move above or below these levels.

8 Oct: Nifty spot resistance at 6140-6165-6195-6215-6225. Support at 6115-6100-6070-6045-6020 - www.niftypower.com

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Tuesday, October 5, 2010

5 Oct: Nifty View

In Yesterday's Nifty View, it was given that "Trade the range of 6120-6165 till we get a breakout/ breakdown on either side for another 30-40 points." Nifty opened just above 6165 and straight away gave more than 55 points upmove in the very first hour. However, with such a fast upmove, we missed the buying opportunity in Nifty. Then we did the next logical thing. We waited for Nifty to enter its resistance zone at 6215-6220 (see circled portion in chart) and went short for a Gain of more than 50 points!



For 5 Oct, watch the level of 6140 Nifty spot carefully. A few minutes trade below this level would attract fresh shorts in the Nifty for lower levels of 6120/15-6105 and 6075. Upside resistance now comes at 6180 levels above which Nifty will again gather momentum for higher levels above 6200. Hence, 6140 and 6180 would decide the next 30-40 point move on the Nifty. The trend remain up as long as Nifty stays above 6070 which can be a stoploss for those holding positional longs.

5 Oct: Nifty spot resistance at 6160-6180-6195-6220-6235. Support at 6140-6115-6105-6075 - www.niftypower.com

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Monday, October 4, 2010

4 Oct: Nifty View

We have had an explosive expiry on Nifty and an equally explosive follow up. This market has given a clear message to Bears to stay out at the moment. However, I would still not recommend any fresh positional longs. The only reason for this is the extreme sense of Positivity and complacency from the Bulls. In any market condition, the more people there are on a particular side (Bull or Bear), that camp will lose. Currently, I can see more people on the Bullish side. So, stay cautious, trade intraday (long or short), but don't create any fresh longs here. The opportunity to go long will come. Grab it with both hands at that time.




For the day, Support for Nifty comes at 6120. Strong support comes at Friday's breakout point of 6070. One can buy on dips till this level is breached convincingly. Intraday resistance comes at 6165 levels above which Nifty can target 6185-6190 levels. Overall, trend remains bullish. Trade the range of 6120-6165 till we get a breakout/ breakdown on either side for another 30-40 points.

4 Oct: Nifty spot resistance at 6165-6185-6195-6205. Support at 6140-6120-6100-6070 - www.niftypower.com

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