Saturday, May 30, 2009

Trade According to Plan

In my career in the stock markets, I made a lot of mistakes early on and kept learning along the way. I put all my learnings into developing my trading system and trading methodologies. Whenever I see new entrants making the same mistakes, I feel like going to them and say "Look Boss! Don't get emotional!"

I produce here some simple, but very very important methods to go about a trade., I have been following this for over 6 years now and this has not failed me.

1) Have a Plan: The plan can be anything. If you are bullish, the plan can be I'll buy near supports or when markets breakout above a resistance. But always have a plan. Without a plan, you will virtually be buying and selling every minute!

2) Identify the trend: I always watch the market for the first half an hour to gauge the mood. Once an Intraday trend is clear, i make up my mind to either go long at supports or short at resistance.

3) Always Use a stoploss: Stoplosses are something which have to be fed into the computer before you actually enter the buy price.

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Thursday, May 28, 2009

Nifty Views for 28 May, 2009

Today is expiry day and expiries are always the most difficult to predict and trade. Trade only if you have to otherwise stay on the sidelines and watch the show.

One may buy Nifty if it moves in the green today, above 4280. Nifty will face some resistance at 4320-4325 area, above which it will test 4360.

Nifty resistance at 4275-4325-4360-4440. Support at 4215-4190-4160-4105

Free nifty tips

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Nifty Views for 27 May, 2009

Global cues are positive and Nifty is expected to close in the green today. Expect some short covering also to take the markets higher.

After the huge event of elections last Monday, Nifty has been consolidating and slowly drifting down. A range for Nifty for the time being has to be set now, before any major move. The most probable range can be 4050-4500. The lower end of this range probably got tested yesterday. Now, with a reason to move up, I think we will first go to test 4280-4360-4400 before any major correction. However, F&O expiry can be volatile times, so one has to be careful.

Today, buy Nifty on dips as long as we stay above 4115 on Nifty spot.

Nifty resistance at 4195-4230-4275. Support at 4115-4070-4030-3950

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Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Markets Create History!!!!!

The election euphoria did play out and how? It was a historic day in the Indian Stock Market where both Sensex and Nifty hit two upper circuits and trade had to be halted for the day. There was hardly a minutes trading possible and very low volumes. But there were no sellers in the market. Buy orders flushed in and the markets hit upper circuit.

As written earlier also, this euphoria will last for some time, at least 3-4 days and then it will be over again to the newsflow and global markets. Can Nifty do it again on Tuesday? Well, it's anybody's guess. We will have a positive opening but where we go from there, none can tell. Expect volatile movements intraday. One can ride the wave via the options route. Intraday players do remember that stoplosses may not work in environment. Hence trade in very very small volumes with broad stoplosses. Trade only if you have to.

Sunday, May 17, 2009

Elections Over, Now what??

We have had a great pre election rally of about 50% on Nifty. Now, after the elections result has surprised everyone on the positive side, what is in store next? We are not going down fast, that’s for sure. But are we going to go up? Let’s analyze the situation given the liquidity situation.

First, the FII’s, DII’s and the HNI’s. A lot of funds got deployed in the April and May series. However, given the uncertainty that was there in this election, some of the funds must be on the sidelines waiting for a positive result. Now these entire funds will get deployed in a hurry. This will ensure that we have an immediate rally on our hands. Some of the funds would still prefer to wait and let the new Government make some announcements regarding reforms etc. This tells us that this rally will sustain for some time/ consolidate at least in the near term.

Also, do remember that speculative shorters will also be covering in panic on Monday/ Tuesday and there will not be people who will think about shorting this market now, at least for next 10-15% of uprise. Hence a quick rally is on the cards.

Having said that, we all have to remember that the situation economic wise has not changed with this event. If at all there was a uncertainty regarding this election, that did not show up in the form a correction that should have happened. This tells us that the market has been moving more in line with the global markets than on local cues. Hence, once the euphoria dies down after 3-4 days, global markets will have to support our markets if this rally is to continue.

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Nifty Views for May 13, 2009

On Tuesday, Nifty opened on a flat note as expected. IIP numbers were bad and Nifty, defying all logic and expectations, rallied sharply in the second half to close near 3680 levels.

Logic says that people should prefer to stay light before the elections results come out. But this market is defying all logic, hence one can't be sure. Another line of thinking is that after having closed 6-7 times in the range of 3600-3700, probably this is where we will stay until the election results come out. From this range, market can easily rally or fall 300-400 points depending about the election result.

On Wednesday, nifty is again expected to open on a flattish note. Intraday players can go long if it opens and sustains above 3700. If we open below 3680, one can go long when we break above 3680-3685 intraday. Fall below 3640 may lead to 3600 levels.

Nifty resistance at 3680-3720-3760. Suport at 3640-3600-3585-3560

Nifty Futures tips

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Nifty Views for May, 12, 2009

Finally, some correction happend in our markets. Now will this correction continue, is the big question.

The way we saw profit booking happening yesterday, there was not much buying seen at lower levels. This suggested that this correction might continue for some more time to come. It is extremely important to trade only on intraday basis in this scenario as Nifty can swing anyway due to heavy newsflow that is going to come in.

On Tuesday, May 12, 2009, Nifty is expected to open flat. IIP data is going to be released today and that will drive the markets. Since this markets is looking for a reason to correct, that might just trigger the correction. If its good, it might not have a very positive effect on the market, but if it is bad, it might just trigger a sell off in the markets. Hence, it will be better for traders to stay light before the news come out.

Intraday traders may short Nifty below 3545 keeping a stoploss of 3560.

Nifty resistance at 3585-3615-3675. Support at 3550-3520-3490-3430

Monday, May 11, 2009

Nifty Views for 11 May, 2009

This market is crying for correction now. All logic tell me that people would want to take home some profit before the election results. But somehow, the market has a way of itself. It would do exactly as you thought, but not "when" you thought.

Positional traders should avoid the market this week due to election results. etc. Those who are long may book profit or keep trailing stoploss of 3575 on closing basis. Intraday players, try to play on supports and resistances. Markets are going to be volatile this week, hence trade light.

Nifty expected to open positive. Sell only if it breaks 3615 intraday with a stoploss of 3630. Intraday traders above 3630 with a stoploss of 3615 for a target of 3660-3680.

Nifty resistance at 3642-3680-3740. Support at 3615-3585-3550-3490

Nifty options tips

Thursday, May 7, 2009

Nifty Views for 7 May, 2009

On Wednesday, Nifty faced stiff resistance at our resistance level of 3720 and corrected more than 100 points from there intraday to close near 3640 levels.

The movement Today and Tomorrow will be crucial for Nifty as it will decide whether we are going to make new highs above 3800-3850 or there is going to be a deeper correction of 10-15%. Trade with strict stoplosses on both the days and dont carry home any positions.

Thursday Nifty is expected to open in the green. Intraday players try to go long near 3625-3605 if they get an opportunity. Aggressive traders can short Nifty at higher levels near 3700 levels for quick gains. However, be quick to book profits in any short positions. Dont remain short above 3700. If Nifty is able to sustain 3720 today, we will see 3750 today itself. Below 3600, we will see 3560.

Nifty resistance at 3675-3725-3760. Support at 3625-3605-3570

Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Nifty Views for May 6, 2009

Nifty continues to move up with forming a higher and higher base. The bulls earlier fought it out for 3300, then 3450 and now 3600. Once an important level is crossed, the support for Nifty keeps moving higher with only intraday corrections, if any. This has become an easy market to play if you are on the side of bulls. How long it will remain like that is anybody's guess.

On Wednesday, expect a flat to negative opening on negative global cues. The stoploss for all shorts should be placed at 3660. Above 3685-3690, Nifty can fire upto 3720-3750. It struggled at 3685-3690 yesterday and it will be interesting to see if it breaks as some indicators have started giving bearish signals now. On the downside, support lies at 3625-3590. Break of this range can see Nifty fall upto 3560.

Nifty resistance at 3660-3690-3720. Support at 3625-3595-3560.

Nifty tips