The correction that we are witnessing is infact very healthy for the markets. It shows that people have certain expectations from the budget and they are booking profits to reduce their positions before the big event. Chances of a disappointment is low if we correct before budget than afterwards.
The Government surely won`t be able to to deliver on all the expectations. Also, they will not fail on all the expectations. It just remains to be seen that which sectors receive the most and which receive less. For example, expect more money in the pockets of the common man which can lift sectors like consumer goods, automobiles etc.
Given that we do not have a pre budget rally and stay below 4450 on budget day, we can really make a dash upwards if there are positive surprises. If there are not, well, don`t expect lower circuits anyways.
Hence, a healthy correction
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Monday, June 29, 2009
Nifty Views for June 29 - July 3, 2009
Just one week to go before the budget is announced. Expect extreme movements on Nifty. This is not going to be an easy week for Day Traders.
The expectations now before the budget are exactly opposite to what they were before the elections. That time it was pessimism where everyone was expecting a hung parliament. Markets were positively surprised and we all know what happened thereafter. The worrying factor this time round is the optimism.
It would be good for the markets if they in the 4200-4500 area this week. That ways, at least the downside will be limited if there is disappointed from the budget. However, if we are going to rally higher this week, the fall would also be severe on disappointment from the budget.
Options will obviously command a higher premium this week. One can look to buy a Straddle on Thursday or Friday. There can be good gains to make just as there were just below the elections.
4450-4500 may give resistance to the rally initially and 4300-4220 will provide the support area.
Weekly resistance for Nifty will come at 4460 and 4540. Weekly supports are 4300-4220-4050.
The expectations now before the budget are exactly opposite to what they were before the elections. That time it was pessimism where everyone was expecting a hung parliament. Markets were positively surprised and we all know what happened thereafter. The worrying factor this time round is the optimism.
It would be good for the markets if they in the 4200-4500 area this week. That ways, at least the downside will be limited if there is disappointed from the budget. However, if we are going to rally higher this week, the fall would also be severe on disappointment from the budget.
Options will obviously command a higher premium this week. One can look to buy a Straddle on Thursday or Friday. There can be good gains to make just as there were just below the elections.
4450-4500 may give resistance to the rally initially and 4300-4220 will provide the support area.
Weekly resistance for Nifty will come at 4460 and 4540. Weekly supports are 4300-4220-4050.
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Nifty Views for 25 June, 2009
Nifty Views for 25 June, 2009
Had Posted this on some other site (MMB)
"Date :23rd Jun, 2009 - 21:13
Technically Nifty has shown positive divergence today indicating a target of 4350-4400. Downside now only below 4180. Shorting advised only below 4140 ..."
Nifty gave ample opportunity to enter yesterday and closed just below the 4300 mark. Asian cues are positive and Nifty today is expected to also open on a positive note.
For day traders, watchout the levels of 4275 and 4260. As long as we stay above 4275, we can safely assume that this recovery will continue. Below 4260, we may see a retest of 4200 and then 4160.
By the way, I prefer to stay away and not draw any conclusions on expiry day...
Nifty resistance at 4335-4360-4375-4400. Support at 4290-4270-4240-4200
Nifty Options tips
Had Posted this on some other site (MMB)
"Date :23rd Jun, 2009 - 21:13
Technically Nifty has shown positive divergence today indicating a target of 4350-4400. Downside now only below 4180. Shorting advised only below 4140 ..."
Nifty gave ample opportunity to enter yesterday and closed just below the 4300 mark. Asian cues are positive and Nifty today is expected to also open on a positive note.
For day traders, watchout the levels of 4275 and 4260. As long as we stay above 4275, we can safely assume that this recovery will continue. Below 4260, we may see a retest of 4200 and then 4160.
By the way, I prefer to stay away and not draw any conclusions on expiry day...
Nifty resistance at 4335-4360-4375-4400. Support at 4290-4270-4240-4200
Nifty Options tips
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