28 Feb - Nifty View

Nifty had a Trend Down day today, and closed nearly 150 points from Friday's close. Today's movement would have shaken up a lot of complacent Bulls. In the process, Nifty Spot also broke and closed below its previous strong support of 5320. It might attempt to retest this level, in the coming days, and how it behaves at that level, will decide further course of action. As of now, the trend remains firmly down till it stays below 5320 spot. Positional shorts which were opened on the break of 5520 spot, can be booked here, and wait to see what happens on retesting of previous support levels.

The Nifty option OI Charts are given below:

The Bulls were active at 5200 PE and 5300 PE strikes, where they added a huge quantity of 25 lacs+ OI. The Bears added 21 lacs+ OI at 5400 CE to 5600 CE strikes. After today's movement, the levels of 5200 and 5300 still remains as the strongest support for Nifty. 5400 and 5500 are the battleground levels, while 5600 and above are the supports.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot comes at 5300/5320 levels. The Bears are not expected to give in easily at this resistance level now, and rise upto this level can be used to build short positions. Break and sustenance above 5320 level, however, will induce a short covering rally till 5375-5400 levels. On the downside, support for Nifty Spot comes at 5275/5280 level. Below this, it will test 5250 and 5220 levels, which are expected to provide good support and might arrest this correction for the time being.

28 Feb - Nifty Spot resistance at 53205375-5400-5455. Support at 5275-5250-5220-5180 - www.niftypower.com

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27 Feb - Nifty View

Nifty had a decent correction last week, in which it closed both the Gaps that were created in the previous week. It is a cautious correction till now, more like profit booking, rather than fresh shorts entering the system. The medium term trend remains positive till Nifty Spot is closing above 5300/5320 levels. Short term remains negative below 5530/5520 spot now. Aggressive shorts, that were created on break of 5520 spot can now lower their stoplosses from 5630 to 5530 on closing basis.

The Nifty option OI Charts are given below:

In the near strike options, the Bulls added 20 lacs+ OI from 5100 PE to 5400 PE strikes. On the other hand, the Bears added 17 lacs+ OI from 5500 CE to 5800 CE strikes. At the start of the series, the Bulls are building support at 5300 and below levels. The Bears are cautious as of now, and there is very little OI in Call Options as of now. 5500 is the 50:50 level as of now, and 5300 to 5700 is the range for the series.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot comes at 5455/5460 levels. Staying above this, the Bulls will be in control, and will likely take Nifty to test higher level of 5520/5530, with minor resistance at 5480. On the downside, support for Nifty Spot comes at5420 levels. Below this, the Bears will have an upper hand, and the ongoing correction can continue till 5390/5370 levels. Below 5370, the all important support of 5320 is likely to be tested again.

27 Feb - Nifty Spot resistance at 5460-5480-5520-5550. Support at 5420-5390-5370-5320 - www.niftypower.com

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23 Feb - Nifty View

Nifty finally had a good down day on Wednesday, and closed one of the Gaps, which was formed last week. The second Gap Area lies between the 5460 - 5430 zone, and it can provide some support to the Nifty, in case it falls further. Aggressive Shorts have already been triggered today, and they can have a Stop and Reverse at 5630 Nifty Spot level as of now. The Medium Term trend still remains positive, till the time Nifty pot is trading above 5300/5320 levels.

The Nifty option OI Charts are given below:

One day before the expiry, any major addition in the Options Open Interest is not expected. However, with today's fall, the Bears jumped at the opportunity and added a huge quantity of 39 lacs+ OI from 5500 CE to 5700 CE strikes. Whether this huge addition backfires at them or turns out to be a smart move, we will come to know by tomorrow. The Bulls did not do any addition, and covered their positions at almost all strikes, as expected. Going into the Expiry day, both the levels of 5500 and 5600 are the 50:50 levels.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot now comes at 5520/5530 levels. Staying above this, the next strong resistance will come at 5550/5555 levels. Above 5555, the Bulls will again try to push it towards 5590/5595 levels, above which lies the strong resistance of 5630. On the downside, support for Nifty Spot comes at 5480 levels. Below this, lies the Gap Zone of 5460-5425. If and when this Gap is closed, the next follow-up move in Nifty will be keenly watched to decide on the next direction of the trade.

23 Feb - Nifty Spot resistance at 5525-5555-5590-5625. Support at 5480-5460-5425-5390 - www.niftypower.com

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21 Feb - Nifty View

Nifty had another "Up" week last week, and closed near the highs of the week. It left two gaps in the process, which may be filled in the coming weeks, as the structure does not look like a "Runaway Gap", and more like an "Exhaustion Gap". Any which way, these Gaps have given us some important levels, breach of which can lead to short term downmove in the Nifty. The first indication of this will come if Nifty Spot declines below the 5530/5520 zone. This should now be the stoploss for all Longs on closing basis. On the upside, 5620/5630 is expected to provide some stiff resistance, above which, 5700+ levels can come.

The Nifty option OI Charts are given below:

On the Options front, the same story is repeated everyday. The Bulls continue to add huge positions in Put Options, while the Bears keep covering at lower strike Call options. Friday was no different. The Bulls added a huge amount of 27 lacs+ OI at 5600 PE strike alone. The Bears covered nearly 15 lacs OI at 5400 CE and 5500 CE strikes. The Option Charts look too Bullish for comfort now. There is no real resistance ahead of Nifty now. On the downside, there is support at each strike at and below 5500 level.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot comes at 5590/5600 levels, above which, the strong resistance of 5620/5630 will be tested. A close above 5630 will set it up for still higher targets 5700/5720, and probably a rangebound move between 5600 and 5700 after that. On the downside, support for Nifty Spot comes at 5530/5520 zone. A close below 5520 will set up Nifty for a short term correction towards 5480/5460 and 5425 levels.

21 Feb - Nifty Spot resistance at 5595-5625-5660-5690. Support at 5525-5480-5460-5425 - www.niftypower.com

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16 Feb - Nifty View

Nifty finally broke out after seven days of consolidation, and made another 100 point upmove. It is now within striking distance of the range of 5600 to 5700, which was an important reference point for entire 2010. This 100 point range was visited multiple times last year, and may prove to be the next big resistance for Nifty. Crossing and closing above 5700 should open the floodgates for new all time highs. But right now, it is time to be cautious with Longs, as the entire world is turning Bullish. Remember, when the last Bear turns a Bull, its time to Sell. However, instead of predicting and speculating, it is better to follow the market. Hence, those in longs can book out, but it not the right time to enter Fresh Shorts right now. That signal will come only below the opening level of today, which is 100 points down as of now.

The Nifty option OI Charts are given below:

On the Options front, the Bears were massacred today. The Bulls added a Huge 32 lacs+ OI at 5500 PE strike, and another huge 15 lacs+ at 5600 PE strike. On the other hand, the Bears covered a huge amount of 37 lacs+ OI at 5400 CE and 5500 CE strikes. The Option Charts look too Bullish for comfort now. In one day, the level of 5500 has gone from a major resistance to a 50:50 level, and there is no real resistance ahead of Nifty now. On the downside, there is support at each strike at and below 5400 level.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot comes at 5545 levels, above which, it will head for 5575-5590 and 5620 levels. On the downside, support for Nifty Spot now comes at 5495 and 5510 levels. Below these, todays Gap support of 5460 will come into play. All dips will be bought till Nifty stays and closes above this level now. If however, it closes below this level, then it can signal the start of a short term correction. hence, 5460 should be the stoploss for all positional longs now.

16 Feb - Nifty Spot resistance at 5545-5575-5590-5620. Support at 5510-5495-5460-5425 - www.niftypower.com

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15 Feb - Nifty View

On Tuesday, Nifty opened flat, and traded rangebound for the entire day, except for the last half hour, where it scared the Bears by threatening to give a breakout above the last week Doji level. However, it stopped right the breakout level, keeping both the Bulls and the Bears guessing. Tomorrow will be an important day for the Bulls, who have their best chance to try and give a breakout above 5430 Spot, which they have been trying since past week. A failed move on the upside can lead to a short term corrective move. Keep an eye on the levels and initiate trades accordingly tomorrow.

The Nifty option OI Charts are given below:

It was a nothing day on the Options front, except for the action at the 5400 CE and 5400 PE strike. The Bulls added nearly 8 lacs OI at 5400 PE strike, while the Bears covered nearly 7 lacs OI at 5400 CE strike. 5400 still remains the battleground level between the Bulls and the Bears. On the upside, 5500 is the level at which the maximum amount of open interest is there in Calls. Apart from that, there is no real resistance ahead, from the option point of view. On the downside, maximum open interest is at 5300 PE level, and good open interest also exists from 5000 PE to 5200 PE strikes, which makes each of this levels a good support area as of now.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot comes at 5425/5430 level. Above this, Nifty can breakout towards 5500+ levele, with minor reistances coming at 5445 and 5485 levels. On the downside, support for Nifty Spot comes at 5405/5410 level. Below this, a correction towards 5390-5370 and 5350 can come. Below 5350, we can have a longer short term correction.

15 Feb - Nifty Spot resistance at 5430-5445-5485-5510. Support at 5405-5390-5370-5350 - www.niftypower.com


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13 Feb - Nifty View

Last week, Nifty formed on a Doji on weekly charts, signifying a pause in the current ongoing uptrend. This was the much required pause, after 5 weeks of uptrend. Also, Nifty had made a Bearish engulfing candlestick on Tuesday last week, which was not confirmed. Infact, the lows of Tuesday, at 5322 Nifty Spot, were not breached for the entire week. This has now become an important low for Swing Traders, and aggressive Shorts can be opened if Nifty breaches and closes below this level. On the upside, the highest close for Nifty was on Thurday, however, this breakout also failed and NIfty declined to come back within the range on Friday. Thus, overall, there were two whipsaw moves, both for the Bulls and the Bears, in the consolidation of last week. Now, after this Doji week, the 100 point range of 5320 to 5420 will be the deciding range for the coming week. A move past this range can be taken as a breakout trade, with stoploss if Nifty moves back into the range. Within this 100 point range, choppy moves are expected.

The Nifty option OI Charts are given below:

The Bears were quite active on Friday, adding nearly 21 lacs OI between 5400 CE to 5700 CE strikes. On the other hand, there was very little addition by the Bulls. They added only a small amount of OI 5400 PE strike. Overall, option data suggests 5300 to 5500 as the range, with 5400 as the battleground level between the Bulls and the Bears.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot comes at 5395/5400 levels, above which, comes the breakout level of 5420. Above 5420, we can see a mini breakout towards 5500+ levels, with minor resistances coming at 5445 and 5485 levels. On the downside, support for Nifty Spot comes at 5355 levels. Staying below this, Bears will push it towards its support level of 5325/5320. A break and closing below 5320 level can start a short term correction in Nifty.

13 Feb - Nifty Spot resistance at 5395-5420-5445-5485. Support at 5355-5320-5285-5250 - www.niftypower.com

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How High Brokerage Can Kill You in F&O

If you are a trader in Nifty futures, who wants to double his capital by intraday trading within 1 year, then see the calculation below and see why a low brokerage is absolutely MUST to achieve this aim.

Who - Traders in Nifty Futures
Aim - Double a Capital of 1 lac in 1 year
How - Trade in Nifty Futures on Intraday Basis

With a Capital of Rs. 1 lac, you should be able to trade in 4 lots of Nifty Futures at current rates. To double your money, you actually need to earn 500 Nifty Points, if you are trading with Nifty Futures. To do that, you have approximately 220 trading days. Lets assume you trade on a Daily Basis and Intraday only. Hence, you need to earn 500/220 = approximately 2 points per trade. Easy? Now look at the calculations below:

Total No. of trades = 250 (for ease of calcuation)
No. of Points earned = 500
Total money earned on 4 lots = Rs. 1,00,000
Brokerage per lot = Rs.150-250 per lot
Total Brokerage per day for 4 lots = Rs. 600 to Rs. 1000
Total brokerage for the entire year = Rs. 1,50,000 to Rs. 2,50,000

Net Profit - Brokerage = Rs. 50,000 to Rs. 1,50,0000 LOSS

Now one can argue that by trading in Nifty Futures, 500 points can be achieved in half of that time. Lets assume that you can achieve this target in 6 months, instead of 1 year. This is a pretty aggressive assumption, because if this is true, you can potentially double your capital every 6 months. Still, lets go ahead with this calculation:

Total No. of trades = 125
No. of Points earned = 500
Total money earned on 4 lots = Rs. 1,00,000
Brokerage per lot = Rs.150-250 per lot
Total Brokerage per day for 4 lots = Rs. 600 to Rs. 1000
Total brokerage for the entire year = Rs. 75,000 to Rs. 1,50,000

Net Profit - Brokerage = Rs. 25,000 PROFIT OR Rs.50,0000 LOSS

Hence, we see that with a brokerage of Rs. 150-250, which is the prevailing rates for most brokerages as of now in India, it is next to impossible to generate consistent returns from the market by Intraday Trading.

If YOU still want to trade, find out a brokerage which will charge you less than Rs. 20/lot in Nifty Futures.Or else, negotiate with your Broker to offer you Low Brokerage. If he refuses, better to STOP trading with him, rather than making him rich, while you become poor. It is only when these brokers start losing clients, will they think of their benefit first rather than theirs. A reduced brokerage is a win-win situation for both the Brokers and the Clients, as if the client makes money, the Broker will keep getting a regular and predictable income from him. However, in present situation, majority of traders Stop trading after losing their capital by paying high brokerage fees.

Similar calculation can be shown to be true for Nifty Options Traders and other Intraday Traders. But that is for later.

10 Feb - Nifty View

Nifty finally closed above its resistance area of 5400 today. This week was full of consolidation, as was expected after 5 consecutive weeks of upside. If Bulls manage to close the week above 5400 tomorrow, then it will send further fear in the Bear camp. 5320 Spot was the level below which aggressive Positional Shorts could have been opened. That level was never breached this week. For tomorrow and the coming week, traders can raise that level to 5350, and initiate short positions if Nifty moves below it. Till then, stay long or stay out, with stoploss at 5350.

The Nifty option OI Charts are given below:

It was another day that belonged to the Bulls. They added a huge 21 lacs+ OI at 5300 PE and 5400 PE strikes. On the other hand, the Bears did not do much addition, and covered small amount at 5500 CE and below strikes. For the Bears, the highest OI has moved from 5400 CE to 5500 CE. The open interest at 5500 CE is now almost equal to5300 PE and 5200 PE strikes, which have the highest OI on the Puts side. This level will be a tough level and the Bears seem ready to give a tough fight to the Bulls. If that is the case, then a correction might commence whenever Nifty reaches near to these levels.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot comes at 5410/5420 range. Staying above this, it will head for 5500+ levels, with minor resistance at 5445 and 5485 levels. On the downside, support for Nifty Spot now comes at 5365/5370 and then at 5350 levels. Below 5350, the Bears can hope for a correction till 5320-5285 and 5250 levels.

10 Feb - Nifty Spot resistance at 5415-5445-5485-5525. Support at 5370-5350-5320-5285 - www.niftypower.com

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8 Feb - Nifty View

On Tuesday, Nifty had its second Red Day of the week, where the closed price was lower than the Open Price. It was still able to hold the lows of yesterday, which is an important reference level for aggressive traders to go short. On the upside, it is finding it hard to cross and sustain above 5400. Whether this consolidation will turn into a correction, or like earlier, Nifty will consolidate to breakout above 5400 next, remains to be seen. 5250 can be taken as a short term trend deciding level for now. Till Nifty is above this level, consider the trend as up only.

The Nifty option OI Charts are given below:

Both the Bulls and the Bears were subdued today. The Bulls added 12 lacs+ OI at 5300 PE and 5400 PE strikes, while the Bears added 13 lacs+ OI at 5400 CE and 5500 CE strikes. Overall, the Option Charts remain the same as they were yesterday. 5200 to 5400 is the immediate range, and 5300 is the battleground level between the Bulls and the Bears.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot comes at 5355, and then at 5375/ 5380 levels. Above these, Nifty will head for 5405/5445 levels. On the downside, support for Nifty Spot comes near 5325 levels. Below this, the Bears can hope for a correction till 5285/5290 and 5250 levels.

8 Feb - Nifty Spot resistance at 5355-5375-5405-5445. Support at 5325-5285-5250-5225 - www.niftypower.com

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7 Feb - Nifty View

Nifty has another "UP" day on Monday, although it made a Red Bar on Daily Chart by closing below the opening level. After today's move, Nifty has made another high. It is important to note that while Nifty is making a new high, indicators like RSI are not making new highs. Bearish Divergences are occurring on the charts. While the signal to short has still not come, it will be better to stay cautious with the Longs. Aggressive traders can try Positional Shorts below the lows of today, with tight Stoplosses.

The Nifty option OI Charts are given below:

On the Options front, it was a similar story, as in the recent past. The Bulls added a huge amount of 31 lacs+ OI between 5200 PE to 5400 PE strikes. The Bears also added a small amount of 6 lacs+ OI at 5400 CE strike, but apart from that, they did not do much. After todays move, 5300 has become the50:50 level, with almost equal amount of OI in the Calls and Puts. 5200 and 5000 are the major supports for this series, while there is no real resistance as of now. 5400 CE has the highest open interest, and hence, can be considered as some sort of a resistance.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot comes at 5375/ 5380 levels, above which, it will head for 5405/5445 levels. On the downside, support for Nifty Spot comes at todays lows near 5325 levels. Below this, the Bears can hope for a correction till at least 5285/5290 levels.

7 Feb - Nifty Spot resistance at 5375-5405-5445-5490. Support at 5325-5285-5250-5225 - www.niftypower.com

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6 Feb - Nifty View

Nifty had another up day on Friday. With that, it ended a 5th consecutive positive week. It has also comfortably closed above 200 DMA and the falling trendline resistance. This resistance line has been crossed after more than a year. It had earlier formed a higher high on Daily Charts, and most probably, on a correction, whenever it comes, will form a Higher Low. All indication are there for a Long Term Trend Change happening. This is a transitioning phase, and it is going to be the most difficult for traders, mentally and emotionally. Till the time it stays above 5200 now, consider the Short Term trend as up. For investors and Medium/ Long Term traders, the Buy On Dips time has come, with a stoploss at 4700 level for Nifty. For short term traders, Stoploss for any fresh Longs should be placed at 5200 level on a closing basis.

The Nifty option OI Charts are given below:

The Bears have been really pushed back by the Bulls. Friday was no different. The Bulls added a huge amount amount of 22 lacs+ OI at 5200 PE and 5300 PE strikes. On the other hand, the Bears covered a big quantity of OI from 5200 CE to 5400 CE strikes. The only addition done by the Bears was a small addition at and above 5500 CE strikes. Overall, in the Options Charts, 5300 CE to 5500 CE strikes, all have nearly equal OI of 45 lacs to 50 lacs. In terms of support, 5000 PE has the maximum OI, and it will be the major support for this series. Immediate supports lies at 5200 and 5100 levels, while 5300 is the 50:50 level as of now.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot comes at 5335/5340 levels. Above this, Nifty can straightaway head towards 5400/5405 levels, with a minor resistance at 5365 level. On the downside, good support for Nifty Spot comes at 5285/5290 levels. Till Nifty stays above this level, Bulls will have an upper hand. Below 5285, 5250/5255 will be the next good supports for Nifty Spot. Only if Nifty falls below 5250, can the Bears hope for a retest of 200 DMA.

6 Feb - Nifty Spot resistance at 5340-5365-5405-5445. Support at 5285-5250-5225-5205 - www.niftypower.com

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3 Feb - Nifty View

Nifty made a Doji today on Daily charts, signifying indecision among the traders. It just managed to closed above the falling trendline resistance, and the Bulls also managed to save the 200 DMA in intraday declines today. The highs and lows of today now become important for the continuation of this trend or the start of a correction. On the downside, another level to watch out will be 5205 level, which was the close 27 Jan, on which day the hanging man pattern was formed on Daily Charts. A decline below these levels would be the first sign of a correction, to be confirmed by a break and close below 5160 level. Till then, stay with the trend.

The Nifty option OI Charts are given below:

Today was another day in which the Bulls dominated on the Options front. A huge amount of 28 lacs+ OI was added by the Bulls between 5100 PE to 5300 PE strikes. On the other hand, the Bears largely remained absent, and did not add/ subtract much from their positions. Overall, 5100 to 5300 is the narrow range developing for this series, with 5200 being the battleground level between the Bulls and the Bears.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance zone for Nifty Spot comes again lies in the 5260-5290 area. If it crosses this zone, then a rally towards 5335/5340 and 5400 levels cannot be ruled out. On the downside, support for Nifty Spot comes at todays low of 5225/5230, and then near 5205 level. Below this, it can test 5180/5160 in intraday. As given earlier, 5160 will be short term trend decider level, as of now.

3 Feb - Nifty Spot resistance at 5260-5285-5310-5335. Support at 5225-5205-5180-5160 - www.niftypower.com

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2 Feb - Nifty View

Nifty continued its upmove today also, and closed above its 200 DMA. This is a very Bullish sign and probably the start of a new Bull market, and end of the year long Bear market. However, for Long term investors, they should wait for a Higher Low to be formed on the charts, and then a Higher High to confirm the uptrend. For short term and medium term traders, the trend is already up, and only a break and close below 5100 will give the first sign of weakness. As of now, the Nifty has reached the falling trend line from Nov 2011 highs, and it remains to be seen whether it is able to cross an close above it. On the downside, 200 DMA will be the level the Bulls will try to protect now.

The Nifty option OI Charts are given below:

Both the Bulls and the Bears were in action today. The Bears added a big amount of 21 lacs+ OI at 5400 CE and 5500 CE strikes, while covering 5 lacs+ OI at 5200 CE strike. On the other hand, the Bulls have added a decent amount of 29 lacs+ OI from 5000 PE to 5400 PE strike. After todya's move, the range has shifted upwards and is now at 5100 to 5300. 5200 is a 50:50 level as of now.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance zone for Nifty Spot comes at 5260-5290 area. Nifty meets the falling trendline in this zone, and if it crosses this zone, then a rally towards 5335/5340 and 5400 levels cannot be ruled out. On the downside, support for Nifty Spot comes near the 200 DMA at 5205 level. Below this, it can test 5180/5160 in intraday. As Nifty has closed above 200 DMA, any correction towards the support levels are expected to be bought, till Nifty does not close below 200 DMA again.

2 Feb - Nifty Spot resistance at 5260-5285-5310-5335. Support at 5205-5180-5160-5140 - www.niftypower.com

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31 Jan - Nifty View

Nifty opened Gap Up today, traded rangebound within 30 points in the first half, before taking off in the last hour to cover all of yesterday's loss. It was a great comeback from the Bulls. Interesting thing to note is the higher volumes witnessed both today and yesterday. It seems like the classic battle between the Bulls and the Bears is going on just at the 200 DMA and the falling trendline resistance level. Who will win is anybody's guess, but it will be prudent for traders not to get carried away by today's and yesterday's move. Nifty is still where it was two days ago. This is the time to wait and watch. Once a confirmed breakout/ breakdown takes place, there will be enough opportunities to trade.

The Nifty option OI Charts are given below:

If it was Bears day yesterday, today belonged to the Bulls. They added a huge 36 lacs+ OI between 4700 PE to 5000 PE strikes. However, the Bears also did not cover the huge positions written yesterday. instead they added a small quantity of 8 lacs+ OI at 5100 CE and 5200 CE strikes. Overall, after today's move, 5200 level has become a minor resistance now, from a major resistance. 5300 is the biggest resistance level for this month, and this also comes near the falling trendline resistance. 5100 is now a minor support, while 5000 and 4800 are the major supports for the series.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty spot comes at 5210-5230 levels. The Bears will try their best stop Nifty from crossing these levels, coz after this, the next major resistance comes above 200 DMA at 5285 level. On the downside, support for Nifty Spot comes at 5180 levels, below which, the next supports are at 5160-5140 and and 5125 levels. The short term trend deciding level can be considered to be 5100 now, up from 5050 level which was given yesterday.

1 Feb - Nifty Spot resistance at 5210-5230-5260-5285. Support at 5180-5160-5140-5125 - www.niftypower.com

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