1 March: Nifty View

We had a very Volatile session on Budget day, with Nifty swinging 100+ points twice in two hours. Now with the Budget behind us, we can again get back to analyzing the Nifty in our old fashioned way.

Today, although it showed some wild swings, Nifty could not scale its strong resistance zone of 5495-5505 and fell after making a high near 5477. Since it is a high made on big Big News Day, it should be considered the trend reversal point on short term basis for now. On the downside, the last swing low of 5220 was protected on Friday, with Nifty making a higher low around 5232. This can also be considered a panic low for the time being, as Nifty reached there after a big fall on Expiry Day. Hence, this would be the level to watch, for a positional short trade.

The Options OI table is given below:

The only level where we see decent amount of OI at present is 5300 PE. The other levels would become more active as the days pass by. For now, 5300 looks to be the support level from the Options data. On the upside, 5500 is a weak resistance area, with real resistance lying at 5600 and above. From the Options data 5300 to 5500 is the immediate range for Nifty, with 5400 as the battlezone between the Bulls and the Bears.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty spot comes at 5345-5355 zone. Sustaining above this, Nifty will again try to head for 5385-5400 and higher levels. On the downside, immediate support for Nifty spot comes at 5305-5310 levels. Break of this would lead it to test lower levels of 5280-5265 and 5235 levels. Since market volatility is good, buying/selling after the breakout/ breakdown would fetch better trades as compared to Buying/ Selling at Supports/ Resistances.

1 March: Nifty spot resistance at 5355-5385-5400-5435. Support at 5305-5280-5265-5235 - www.niftypower.com

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21 Feb: Nifty View

On Friday, Nifty opened up and took a shot at 5600, before sliding 150+ points and closing right at our indicated support of 5460. In the process, it has formed a Bearish Engulfing pattern on Daily Charts. Now, the low of 5440 formed on Friday would become an important level, and probably signal a short term trend change if Nifty trades below this on Monday.

The options OI table is given below:

5500 was the level for most of the action for the Bulls and the Bears. While the Bulls covered more than 30 lacs+ 5500 PE, the Bears added approx. 15 lacs 5500 CE. This levels is the new battleground for the Bulls and the Bears with a slight advantage to the Bears. 5400 and below are the present supports, while 5600 and above are the resistance zones for now. As Expiry is nearing, we would stop giving importance to the change in OI from next week. From today's data, 5370 to 5600 seems to be the range for Nifty Spot for Expiry.

For Monday, immediate resistance for Nifty spot now comes at 5495-5505 levels. If it manages to trade above 5505 for some time, it will again head higher towards 5525-5555 and 5600levels. On the downside, immediate support for Nifty Spot comes at 5440-5435 levels. Below 5435, it will test 5415-5370 and 5340 levels. As it is expiry week, we might see some Volatility next week. Trade the Breakout/ Breakdown from important Support and Resistance levels.

21 Feb: Nifty Spot resistance at 5495-5505-5525-5555. Support at 5440-5415-5395-5370 - www.niftypower.com

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18 Feb: Nifty View

On Thursday, Nifty started the day by giving some hopes to the Bears that a correction is coming. However, 5460 spot was held by the Bulls and once it crossed 5480, we went long for good gains of 50+ points in Nifty Future.

Their is no point in fighting the immediate trend. When the markets were falling, all Rallies were being sold into. Now, when the markets are rising, all Dips are being bought. Whenever the immediate trend changes again, these Long trades at supports will stop working. For the Bulls, 5460 Spot becomes an important level to watch for any signs of weakness in the market. Below this, 5400 would be important.

The Options OI table is given below:

The table shows Huge OI buildup at 5500 PE and below strikes. At this stage, we can only believe what we are seeing. And what we see from the Options table is absolute Bullishness. According to this table, Nifty spot should not fall below 5460. On the upside, Call Options at 5600 and above have good OI buildup. Hence, 5600 and above levels should provide some resistance. In any case, Bias would remain up till Nifty Spot is trading above 5460 and 5400 Spot.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot comes at 5560-5580 levels. Above 5580, it would attempt 5605 and the 5630, where the 200 DMA lies presently. On the downside, immediate support for Nifty spot comes at 5520-5525 levels, below which, it will again test 5505-5490 levels. As written above also, any dips towards 5460 should be utilized to buy with stoploss of 5-10 points 5460. Bearish sentiments would prevail only on a break below 5400 Spot as of now.

18 Feb: Nifty Spot resistance at 5560-5580-5605-5630. Support at 5520-5505-5490-5460 - www.niftypower.com

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15 Feb: Nifty View

Nifty has made a smart recovery by giving a follow through action after the bounce from Friday. At this point, when Bears are starting to turn Bulls, we would like readers to go through our Nifty Views of 9th and 11th (you can read it by clicking here and here). We had clearly warned that a bottom could be very near.

However, as traders, we should not really be looking at Tops and Bottoms, but just follow the screen. Hence, even if you sense that a bottom is near, you stay with the trend till an important levels is broken against the trend. For us, that level was 5280 on Nifty Spot, and we sent out an alert to all our Subscriber on Friday itself, that above 5280, Nifty would turn positive in the short term. Today, Nifty stands a good 190+ points from that level.

Now that Nifty has made such a staggering rally in the past two days, what we would like to see is whether the supports hold in the corrections that follow (Obviously, it won't continue to go up in a straight line). The levels that we will be watching in case of any correction are 5340 (today's open), 5280 and 5245. Ideally, we would not expect the Nifty to go below 5340.

The Options table for today is given below:

The Options table sums up the action for today. Bears covered in Bulk while the Bulls did the Opposite. 5400 and below should offer support from here on (5340) and 5600 and above are the resistance zones. 5500 is the battlezone between the Bulls and the Bears as of now.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty spot comes around 5500 levels, above which, it will try and conquer 5520-5550 levels. On the downside, support for Nifty spot comes at 5420-5425 levels. If slips below these levels, it would test 5400-5370 levels. As Nifty is reaching overbought levels, and still below some important moving averages (trend down), we would expect some sellers to show up at higher levels. Important thing to watch is whether these sellers are able to take Nifty below its important support zone or not.

15 Feb: Nifty spot resistance at 5465-5495-5520-5550. Support at 5425-5400-5370-5340 - www.niftypower.com

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14 Feb: Nifty View

On Friday, 5170-5150 was the support level that was given in the Nifty View, from where we were expecting a bounce. The actual low made by Nifty was 5177. On the upside, resistance given was 5245 Spot, above which targets were 5310-5330. Nifty made a high of 5319 above 5245.`Once again, those who had followed and traded at the levels, making money would not have been difficult.

Now, on Friday, Nifty has conquered and closed two very important levels of 5245 and 5280. Till these levels are held, the relief rally from oversold levels would continue. On the upside, strong resistance now comes at 5335-5340 level. If Nifty manages to cross these, there will be more upsides.

The options Open Interest table is given below:


The data shows addition of 5200 CE while covering at 5300 CE and above calls by the Bears. Addition in 5200 CE is the odd figure. These could be the calls which were added during the morning downmove and not covered by end of day. The Bulls added Puts at 5300 PE and below strikes, while covering was seen in 5400 PE and above strikes. From the Options table, 5300 and 5400 seems to be the battleground zone. 5200 is a minor support and 5500 and above are the strong resistances. The Options table as of now suggests a downmove before any further upsides. Either the Bears will have to cover their positions or a downmove in the market will resolve this confusion in the options table.

For tomorrow, immediate and strong resistance for Nifty Spot comes at 5340-5345 Spot. If Nifty spot opens below and is able to conquer this level during intraday movement, it will move towards 5370-5395 levels. On the downside, support for Nifty Spot comes at 5280 levels. Below this, it will slide towards 5245-5220 and 5195 levels. For the Bulls to have any hopes alive now, they will have to defend the level of 5245 Spot. Below this, the Bears will gather more strength.

14 Feb: Nifty spot resistance at 5340-5360-5390-5425. Support at 5280-5245-5220-5195 - www.niftypower.com

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11 Feb:Nifty View

In Yesterday's Nifty View, the downside support was given as 5250, below which targets were 5225 and 5205. Nifty made exact low at 5202. The upside resistance was given at 5295, which was not reached.

In intra moves, Nifty tried to make a smart recovery in the afternoon, but failed to cross its resistance zone of 5280-5285 yet again, and closed right at its support zone of 5220-5225. Positionally, upside levels of 5280 and 5340 has now become very important for Nifty, if it wants to stage any sort of recovery. Having said that, if a recovery has to come, it should come soon enough as many Index stocks like SBI, Reliance etc. are on the verge of breakdown.

The Options table is given below:


Although the Bulls covered 5300 PE and 5400 PE, these two levels are still 50:50 rather than favoring any one side. Bears added a lot of 5200 CE, but still there are enough open interest at 5200 PE to call it a good support. On the upside, 5500 and above levels can be considered to be resistance levels.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty spot comes at 5245-5250 area, above which,it will again try to conquer its resistance zone of 5275-5285. If stays above 5285 for some time, short covering will take it to 5310-5330 levels, where again selling pressure will emerge. On the downside, support for Nifty spot now comes at 5200-5195. This is not a well established support, but based on past data. Below this level, Nifty will slide towards 5170-5150 levels, where it is expected to get a bounce from oversold levels. Failure to hold 5150 would lead to quicker falls in the market.

11 Feb: Nifty spot resistance at 5250-5275-5310-5330. Support at 5220-5195-5170-5150 - www.niftypower.com

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10 Feb: Nifty View

In Yesterday's post, the upside resistance for Nifty spot was given as 5335-5340. Actual high made = 5339.45. For downside trades, it was given that "...On the downside,immediate support comes at 5285-5280 levels, below which it will slide towards 5260-5240 and lower..". Nifty gave two opportunities for the short trade, one in the morning and then again in the afternoon, both times achieving lower targets below 5280 Spot.

Today's action in the afternoon would have given a ray of hope to the Bulls. After many days, some sort of support was seen in a falling market, and Nifty recovered 50+ points from the lows of the day. Today's low of 5225 would be an important level to watch for any further downside from here.

The Options Open Interest table tell the story of the sort of volatile month that we are having. Neither the Bulls, nor the Bears are ready to add Calls or Puts in a major way. The table is given below:


The battlezone between the Bulls and the Bears seems to have shifted lower to 5300 and 5400 levels. 5500 and above are the resistances and 5200 and below are the supports. From the table, a range for the Nifty can be deduced to be 5160 to 5445.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty spot comes at 5295-5305 levels. If Nifty manages to stay above these for sometime, it will move higher toward 5320-5340 level, where again it will face selling pressure. Trading above 5340 would give the Nifty a short term push for even higher levels of 55365/5370. On the downside, support for Nifty spot comes at 5250-5245 levels. Below this, Nifty would again test today's low of 5225, break of which would lead it to 5205-5170 levels.

10 Feb - Nifty spot resistance at 5300-5320-5340-5365. Support at 5280-5245-5225-5205 - www.niftypower.com

9 Feb:Nifty View - End of Bullmarket or End of Correction?

In Yesterday's Nifty View, 5425 was the resistance and 5370 was the support which was given for Nifty Spot. It opened right at the resistance zone, moved lower to break the lower support, and then fell till our final target of 5300 on the downside.

Today, Nifty has broken some very important supports and closed below it. Has the India story ended? Is this the end of the bull market? OR.... is it the end of the correction that is going on. Remember, in the markets, "When the Last Bull becomes a Bear, BUY." Buy has the last Bull really turned Bear or are there still some Bulls remaining? Answer to all the above questions is simple - Don't Bother! We are traders. Don't worry about what the market is Going to Do. Believe in what the market IS Doing. Believe on the screen. Trade all the breakouts and the breakdowns. Even with whipsaws, the ratio of success to failure will be much higher.

Coming back to our trading plan for tomorrow. The Options Open Interest table is given below:


The data shows big addition in 5400 CE, and simultaneous covering in 5400 PE. This level is the new battle ground between the Bulls and the Bears with almost equal open interest in the calls and the puts. On any revisit to the breakdown level of 5360-5370,keep an eye on the open interest in 5400 PE to get an idea of market direction. 5300 and below are the supports, while 5500 and above are the resistances, as suggested by the Options data.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty spot comes at 5335-5340 levels, above which, it will try to attempt 5360-5385 and 5400 levels.On the downside,immediate support comes at 5285-5280 levels, below which it will slide towards 5260-5240 and lower. Trade cautiously.

9 Feb - Nifty spot resistance at 5335-5360-5385-5400. Support at 5280-5255-5240-5215 - www.niftypower.com

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8 Feb: Nifty View

In Yesterday's Nifty View, it was given that "...immediate resistance for Nifty Spot comes at 5420-5425 level, above which, it will try and reach 5445-5460 levels..". Whole day Nifty remained rangebound between our first resistance of 5420 and our first support of 5395. Then it finally broke out above 5420 to make a high at 5440 levels, before slipping again below 5400 and closing Flat. Trading by the levels would have given any trader easy 20+ points even in this rangebound market. Also, as mentioned in the chart above, Nifty did not give any hourly close below 5400/5395 today. Going forward, any hourly close below this level would be the first sign of further weakness. Keep watch.

The Options Open Interest table is given below:


The data presents the same story as yesterday. 5400 is the support and 5500 and above offer weak resistances. There is not much difference in Open interest of Calls and Puts at 5500 and 5600 levels. Hence, whenever we see a short covering rally, it can easily take Nifty back to its earlier breakdown point of 5560-5565 levels, which is a good 150+ points from todays close. On the downside, the moment the writers of 5400 PE start to cover, it will cause real panic for further steep falls. 5350 may be that level, break of which can cause that panic. This gives us a range of 200 points from 5350 to 5550 to trade. Positional traders trade this range till we get a confirmed Breakout/ Breakdown from these levels.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty spot comes at 5425-5430 levels. Above this, it will again try to reach 5445, 5470 and 5500 levels. On the downside, support for Nifty Spot comes at 5370-5375 levels. Break of these would test lower levels of 5350, 5330 and 5300 levels. At the extreme support and resistance levels, we would expect to see some quick volatile moves. Trade cautiously.

8 Feb: Nifty spot resistance at 5430-5445-5470-5500. Support at 5390-5370-5355-5330 - www.niftypower.com

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7 Feb: Nifty View

Nifty fooled a lot of traders on Friday by giving a false breakout above 5545-5550 zone and then fell more than 150+ points, breaking 5400 in the process and closing well below it. The move must have trapped a lot of traders (including us!). These are the times when traders understand the importance of a stoploss! Trading is a game of probabilities and we should always take a high probability trade rather than questioning it or being afraid of it. But once we are proven wrong, it the Duty of the Trader to accept the Market's Supremacy and Bow Out of the Trade. Those who follow this simple approach, will never lose in the long run.

What has been surprising though, is the FII and DII figures from the NSE. The data shows that both of them bought on Friday. Also, have a look at the Options Open Interest Table given below:

Although we saw a good amount of Call writing at 5400 and 5500 levels, the puts did not cover in a hurry. The Bulls would certainly seem to think that a bottom is near, else they should cover their written Puts sooner than later. Even if these Puts are a part of Covered Shorts (Short Future and Short 5400 PE), then also these guys would not be expecting much downside from these levels. It will be interesting to watch the action at 5400 Strike from tomorrow to get a further clue on the market movement. For now, the Options table still suggests support for Nifty at 5400 Levels and Resistance at 5500 and above levels (though a weak one).

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot comes at 5420-5425 level, above which, it will try and reach 5445-5460 levels. At higher levels, it is again expected to face selling pressure. On the downside, support for Nifty comes at 5360-5355 levels, below which, it is expected to slide towards 5320-5300 levels. At the extreme support and resistance levels, we would expect to see some quick volatile moves. Trade cautiously.

7 Feb: Nifty spot resistance at 5420-5445-5460-5495. Support at 5390-5360-5320-5300 - www.niftypower.com

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4 Feb: Nifty View

In yesterday's Nifty View, 5545 Spot was the level given for a breakout on the upside. After some reluctance at this level in the morning trades, Nifty made a smart move of 80+ points on the upside. Thereafter, it consolidated at the higher levels.

The Options Open Interest data table is given below:


5400 has become a strong support zone with almost 93 lacs+ OI at 5400 PE. 5500 and 560oo are the levels, at which the battle between the Bulls and the Bears will be fought now. Above 5600, stiff resistance still exists for Nifty. As of now, 5350 to 5660 seems to be the rangefor the Nifty for this expiry.

For tomorrow, immediate strong resistance for Nifty comes at 5545-5550- spot levels. If Nifty opens below and then is able to conquer these levels, it will move higher to test the levels 5580 and 5625. On the downside,support exists at 5500 levels, below which, it will test 5465-5445 on the downside. Below 5445, we would again see fresh selling.

4 Feb: Nifty spot resistance at 5545-5580-5600-5625. Support at 5520-5500-5485-5465 - www.niftypower.com

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3 Feb: Nifty View

On Wednesday, Nifty tried hard to climb higher on good global cues, but was unable to sustain the higher levels and slipped in the afternoon to close at nearly the lows of the day.

The Options Open Interest Table is given below:


The Battleground has shifted from 5600 to 5500 now with the Bears having an upper hand at this level. 5400-5350 is where the Bulls have a lot of support. If these levels break with corresponding unwinding in 5400 Puts, expect panic selling for much lower levels.

For today, watch the levels of 5400-5405 on the downside and 5445-5450 on the upside. Below 5400, Nifty will slide further towards 5370-5350 levels. Break and close below 5350 will bring real panic in the market. However, expect at least an intraday bounce from these levels, even if Nifty has to break it at a later stage. On the upside, immediate resistance for Nifty comes at 5445 levels, above which, it will again 5460-5495 levels.

3 Feb: Nifty spot resistance at 5445-5460-5475-5495-5525. Support at 5400-5370-5350-5300 - www.niftypower.com

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