The correction that we are witnessing is infact very healthy for the markets. It shows that people have certain expectations from the budget and they are booking profits to reduce their positions before the big event. Chances of a disappointment is low if we correct before budget than afterwards.
The Government surely won`t be able to to deliver on all the expectations. Also, they will not fail on all the expectations. It just remains to be seen that which sectors receive the most and which receive less. For example, expect more money in the pockets of the common man which can lift sectors like consumer goods, automobiles etc.
Given that we do not have a pre budget rally and stay below 4450 on budget day, we can really make a dash upwards if there are positive surprises. If there are not, well, don`t expect lower circuits anyways.
Hence, a healthy correction
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Monday, June 29, 2009
Nifty Views for June 29 - July 3, 2009
Just one week to go before the budget is announced. Expect extreme movements on Nifty. This is not going to be an easy week for Day Traders.
The expectations now before the budget are exactly opposite to what they were before the elections. That time it was pessimism where everyone was expecting a hung parliament. Markets were positively surprised and we all know what happened thereafter. The worrying factor this time round is the optimism.
It would be good for the markets if they in the 4200-4500 area this week. That ways, at least the downside will be limited if there is disappointed from the budget. However, if we are going to rally higher this week, the fall would also be severe on disappointment from the budget.
Options will obviously command a higher premium this week. One can look to buy a Straddle on Thursday or Friday. There can be good gains to make just as there were just below the elections.
4450-4500 may give resistance to the rally initially and 4300-4220 will provide the support area.
Weekly resistance for Nifty will come at 4460 and 4540. Weekly supports are 4300-4220-4050.
The expectations now before the budget are exactly opposite to what they were before the elections. That time it was pessimism where everyone was expecting a hung parliament. Markets were positively surprised and we all know what happened thereafter. The worrying factor this time round is the optimism.
It would be good for the markets if they in the 4200-4500 area this week. That ways, at least the downside will be limited if there is disappointed from the budget. However, if we are going to rally higher this week, the fall would also be severe on disappointment from the budget.
Options will obviously command a higher premium this week. One can look to buy a Straddle on Thursday or Friday. There can be good gains to make just as there were just below the elections.
4450-4500 may give resistance to the rally initially and 4300-4220 will provide the support area.
Weekly resistance for Nifty will come at 4460 and 4540. Weekly supports are 4300-4220-4050.
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Nifty Views for 25 June, 2009
Nifty Views for 25 June, 2009
Had Posted this on some other site (MMB)
"Date :23rd Jun, 2009 - 21:13
Technically Nifty has shown positive divergence today indicating a target of 4350-4400. Downside now only below 4180. Shorting advised only below 4140 ..."
Nifty gave ample opportunity to enter yesterday and closed just below the 4300 mark. Asian cues are positive and Nifty today is expected to also open on a positive note.
For day traders, watchout the levels of 4275 and 4260. As long as we stay above 4275, we can safely assume that this recovery will continue. Below 4260, we may see a retest of 4200 and then 4160.
By the way, I prefer to stay away and not draw any conclusions on expiry day...
Nifty resistance at 4335-4360-4375-4400. Support at 4290-4270-4240-4200
Nifty Options tips
Had Posted this on some other site (MMB)
"Date :23rd Jun, 2009 - 21:13
Technically Nifty has shown positive divergence today indicating a target of 4350-4400. Downside now only below 4180. Shorting advised only below 4140 ..."
Nifty gave ample opportunity to enter yesterday and closed just below the 4300 mark. Asian cues are positive and Nifty today is expected to also open on a positive note.
For day traders, watchout the levels of 4275 and 4260. As long as we stay above 4275, we can safely assume that this recovery will continue. Below 4260, we may see a retest of 4200 and then 4160.
By the way, I prefer to stay away and not draw any conclusions on expiry day...
Nifty resistance at 4335-4360-4375-4400. Support at 4290-4270-4240-4200
Nifty Options tips
Monday, June 22, 2009
Nifty Views for 22 June, 2009
After having a good consolidation/ correction last week, Nifty is expected to start this week on a positive note. However, I still feel we are in a corrective phase and we should test 4100-4120 again before moving up. Hence no long positions advised as of now.
For Monday, above 4360-4370, Nifty may try to touch 4420-4450. Positional traders may go short at this level . Unless we consistently close and stay above 4400, we should head lower.
On the downside, Nifty has support at 4310-4315. Day traders can also go short if this level breaks.
Expect a volatile and rangebound session. Sell on rallies is the theme until we continuously close above 4400
Nifty resistance for today are: 4370-4405-4430-4450. Supprts are 4310-4280-4250-4190-4160
Free Nifty tips
For Monday, above 4360-4370, Nifty may try to touch 4420-4450. Positional traders may go short at this level . Unless we consistently close and stay above 4400, we should head lower.
On the downside, Nifty has support at 4310-4315. Day traders can also go short if this level breaks.
Expect a volatile and rangebound session. Sell on rallies is the theme until we continuously close above 4400
Nifty resistance for today are: 4370-4405-4430-4450. Supprts are 4310-4280-4250-4190-4160
Free Nifty tips
Thursday, June 18, 2009
Nifty Views for June 18, 2009
Our markets have a strange way of doing everything in excesses. It tries to do what it has to do in a single day.
We are in a corrective phase and will remain in a corrective/ consolidating phase at least for the time being. A 10-15% downside is expected in any correction. There is no reasons to believe that the uptrend is not intact. However, going long at this stage will not be advisable. It is better to catch the momentum a little late than try to catch a falling knife/ finding a bottom for the markets.
After yesterday's drubbing, expect 1-2 days of small bounces/ consolidation. We may have a choppy session hitting both side stoplosses. Daytraders should just try to play the range of 4320-4420. Positional traders, if not already entered, wait for better opportunities to go short.
Nifty resistance for today: 4355-4385-4410-4445. Supports are: 4310-4260-4200-4170
Free nifty tips
We are in a corrective phase and will remain in a corrective/ consolidating phase at least for the time being. A 10-15% downside is expected in any correction. There is no reasons to believe that the uptrend is not intact. However, going long at this stage will not be advisable. It is better to catch the momentum a little late than try to catch a falling knife/ finding a bottom for the markets.
After yesterday's drubbing, expect 1-2 days of small bounces/ consolidation. We may have a choppy session hitting both side stoplosses. Daytraders should just try to play the range of 4320-4420. Positional traders, if not already entered, wait for better opportunities to go short.
Nifty resistance for today: 4355-4385-4410-4445. Supports are: 4310-4260-4200-4170
Free nifty tips
Monday, June 15, 2009
Nifty Views for 15 June, 2009
Friday's sharp U turn after touching 4690-4700 levels must have caused some concern among the bulls. Also, the fact that Nifty finally gave up 4600 means that Bears will have an upper hand at least in the morning trades.
4550-4520-4485 are the levels to watch on Monday. Nifty needs to close above the lower support to end the correction and continue its upward journey. Below that, we may not only see profit booking but fresh shorts which can take the index back to test 4400-4360 kind of levels. Above 4620-4650, bulls will back with force.
Nifty resistance for today are: 4580-4620-4645-4705. Supports are: 4550-4520-4490-4455
Nifty options tips
4550-4520-4485 are the levels to watch on Monday. Nifty needs to close above the lower support to end the correction and continue its upward journey. Below that, we may not only see profit booking but fresh shorts which can take the index back to test 4400-4360 kind of levels. Above 4620-4650, bulls will back with force.
Nifty resistance for today are: 4580-4620-4645-4705. Supports are: 4550-4520-4490-4455
Nifty options tips
Thursday, June 11, 2009
Nifty Views for June 11, 2009
As given in weekly views, "we may have some profit booking coming up if Nifty does not cross and close above 4640-4650...............................Given the momentum that we are in, a close below 4360 seems unlikely as of now and going long on dips is the only logical thing to do as the market can stage a quick turnaround".
Nifty stages a quick turnaround from 4370-4380 area after seeing profit booking on Monday. We are in a strong momentum market and going against the tide can be very costly. One should refrain from carrying over any short positions for now.
On Thursday, Nifty is expected to open on a flat to negative note. Watchout for 4605-4610 levels intraday. One can go long on dips with stops around this area for a target of 4715-4750. Below 4610, one can go short INTRADAY for quick gains.
Nifty resistance at 4670-4720-4770. Supports at 4615-4585-4515
Free nifty tips
Nifty stages a quick turnaround from 4370-4380 area after seeing profit booking on Monday. We are in a strong momentum market and going against the tide can be very costly. One should refrain from carrying over any short positions for now.
On Thursday, Nifty is expected to open on a flat to negative note. Watchout for 4605-4610 levels intraday. One can go long on dips with stops around this area for a target of 4715-4750. Below 4610, one can go short INTRADAY for quick gains.
Nifty resistance at 4670-4720-4770. Supports at 4615-4585-4515
Free nifty tips
Monday, June 8, 2009
Nifty Views for week June 8-12, 2009
We had a week of consolidation last week with Nifty ending in green for the week. However, towards the end of the week, some tremors of a correction could be felt and Nifty was unable to hold on to its gains at higher levels facing resistance in the 4630-4640 area.
Going forward next week, we may have some profit booking coming up if Nifty does not cross and close above 4640-4650. If it does on the first two days, one may go long with targets of 4720-4770-4810.
The downside seems to be limited and the bulls will fight fiercely to hold levels of 4490-4430-4360. Given the momentum that we are in, a close below 4360 seems unlikely as of now and going long on dips is the only logical thing to do as the market can stage a quick turnaround. In the unlikely even of closing below 4360, we will be headed towards 4200.
We made a low of 4090 in the last phase of correction/ consolidation and that level should hold for this uptrend to continue.
Going forward next week, we may have some profit booking coming up if Nifty does not cross and close above 4640-4650. If it does on the first two days, one may go long with targets of 4720-4770-4810.
The downside seems to be limited and the bulls will fight fiercely to hold levels of 4490-4430-4360. Given the momentum that we are in, a close below 4360 seems unlikely as of now and going long on dips is the only logical thing to do as the market can stage a quick turnaround. In the unlikely even of closing below 4360, we will be headed towards 4200.
We made a low of 4090 in the last phase of correction/ consolidation and that level should hold for this uptrend to continue.
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