Nifty is expected to open down in line with global cues. Intraday traders should look to go long only above previous day's high or above 3500. Those still holding long positions may take an aggresive stoploss of 3440. Shorting above 3400 can be highly risky.
Nifty resistance at 3496-3520-3560. Support at 3475-3440-3390.
Monday, April 27, 2009
Friday, April 24, 2009
Nifty Views for 24 April, 2009
After an initial correction, Nifty surged in the late hours above 3360 on Thursday to close above 200 DMA near 3430.
Now on Friday, Nifty is expected to open flat following global cues. Positional traders who took longs above 3360 should now trail with a stoploss of 3370 closing. For less adventurous, stoploss for longs should be placed at 3396. Shorting this market is not advised at this stage. One should initiate positional shorts only if we close below 3290 on any day. Intraday traders should initiate shorts only below 3360. Otherwise look for buying opportunities on any dips or whenever Nifty crosses a resistance point.
Nifty Resistance at 3485-3520-3550. Support at 3420-3365-3290
Now on Friday, Nifty is expected to open flat following global cues. Positional traders who took longs above 3360 should now trail with a stoploss of 3370 closing. For less adventurous, stoploss for longs should be placed at 3396. Shorting this market is not advised at this stage. One should initiate positional shorts only if we close below 3290 on any day. Intraday traders should initiate shorts only below 3360. Otherwise look for buying opportunities on any dips or whenever Nifty crosses a resistance point.
Nifty Resistance at 3485-3520-3550. Support at 3420-3365-3290
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Nifty Vies for April 23, 2009
Nifty has been making a series of lower lows and lower highs this week. After closing below 3370 yesterday, the trend has also turned bearish until we close above 3370. However, positional shorts are not advised at this stage as the bounce back can happen anytime now.
On Thursday, April 23, Nifty is likely to open flat. It will face immediate resistance near 3355-3360 area where one can go short with a stoploss above 3365. If sustains above 3360, Nify might try to test 3380-3420. Intraday traders may go long only above 3365 with stoploss at 3355.
Nifty resistance at 3360-3380-3430. Support at 3325-3290-3260-3225
On Thursday, April 23, Nifty is likely to open flat. It will face immediate resistance near 3355-3360 area where one can go short with a stoploss above 3365. If sustains above 3360, Nify might try to test 3380-3420. Intraday traders may go long only above 3365 with stoploss at 3355.
Nifty resistance at 3360-3380-3430. Support at 3325-3290-3260-3225
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
When the last bear turns a Bull - Sell!!
When the last bear turns a Bull - Sell!!!
Just a few days back, all experts on TV channels and financial websites were screaming that this rally does not have the steam to go on and on like this. Today, its a different story. Now, after breaching the 200 DMA, everyone feels that this rally may continue till 4000-4300 on Nifty!!
Reminds me of the time when Nifty was hovering around 2600 levels. I was watching the TV channels even then and the Experts were talking of 2200-1800 on Nifty. I put a message on moneycontrol at that time that this looks fishy and went long near 2600 to be highly rewarded. Now, the exact opposite is happening.
So what to o now? Nothing. Technicals have not been working in this market. Did they work when Nifty rallied till 3500 without any meaningful correction. Did they work when Dow closed below 7500 and still recovered and breached that level. Most of the technicals tell you what happened in the markets. The predictive technicals tells you what is going to happen based on statistics and history. They work most of the time because there are so many people following it. But this time it is different.
This market can be traded more with common sense than with technicals. They say the markets lead the economy by six months. That implies that all the world's problems are going to end by this October. Do your calculations. For e.g., unemployement rate in US is still on the rise. Companies are cutting jobs to stay profitable in India. If people dont have jobs with regualr incomes, how do you expect to build the demand that will drive growth and get us out of the woods.
To cut the story short, the breaching of 200 DMA does not hold much significance in such a scenario. We may have seen the worst of this recession, but we are still far away from a Bull Market.
Long term investors should stay away from this market till the picture becomes more clear. Short term traders on the long side - ride your luck but get out the first day Nifty closes in red as you do not know how far it can go.
For Shorters - Well, Wait for the Last Bear to Turn Bull :-)
www.niftypower.webs.com
Just a few days back, all experts on TV channels and financial websites were screaming that this rally does not have the steam to go on and on like this. Today, its a different story. Now, after breaching the 200 DMA, everyone feels that this rally may continue till 4000-4300 on Nifty!!
Reminds me of the time when Nifty was hovering around 2600 levels. I was watching the TV channels even then and the Experts were talking of 2200-1800 on Nifty. I put a message on moneycontrol at that time that this looks fishy and went long near 2600 to be highly rewarded. Now, the exact opposite is happening.
So what to o now? Nothing. Technicals have not been working in this market. Did they work when Nifty rallied till 3500 without any meaningful correction. Did they work when Dow closed below 7500 and still recovered and breached that level. Most of the technicals tell you what happened in the markets. The predictive technicals tells you what is going to happen based on statistics and history. They work most of the time because there are so many people following it. But this time it is different.
This market can be traded more with common sense than with technicals. They say the markets lead the economy by six months. That implies that all the world's problems are going to end by this October. Do your calculations. For e.g., unemployement rate in US is still on the rise. Companies are cutting jobs to stay profitable in India. If people dont have jobs with regualr incomes, how do you expect to build the demand that will drive growth and get us out of the woods.
To cut the story short, the breaching of 200 DMA does not hold much significance in such a scenario. We may have seen the worst of this recession, but we are still far away from a Bull Market.
Long term investors should stay away from this market till the picture becomes more clear. Short term traders on the long side - ride your luck but get out the first day Nifty closes in red as you do not know how far it can go.
For Shorters - Well, Wait for the Last Bear to Turn Bull :-)
www.niftypower.webs.com
Monday, April 13, 2009
Nifty Views for April 13, 2009
Nifty is expected to open in the positive in line with global markets. It will again face resistance near levels of 3390-3410 and some profit booking can be seen at these levels due to lots of newsflow and results in the coming week. Traders are advised not to take any long positions ahead of the results. A close above 3400 will be highly bullish for Nifty, however, it is better to avoid any long positions as Tuesday is a holiday. Aggressive traders may sell below 3340 Nifty future. Safe traders may wait for Nifty future to break 3300 for a target of 3250.
Nifty Resistance at 3340-3385-3410-3430. Support at 3320-3295-3245
Nifty Resistance at 3340-3385-3410-3430. Support at 3320-3295-3245
Friday, April 10, 2009
Why this is still not a Bull Market
This rally cannot be termed as the start of a bull market. In my interactions with fund managers and people of repute in the financial world, people were just waiting to see when the Nifty stops falling to get into the market with the huge cash they were sitting on. Nobody likes to catch a falling knife (on the upside OR the downside). 2500 held out on a lot of occasions and may have given a lot of people some hope.
Next, people are now waiting to decide on a range on Nifty. This range has to be determined as an elongated period of consolidation has to happen in the markets. At top of the range, you will find the buyer volumes decreasing and then only there will be some correction to lower levels. The levels that we hold on to on the lower side (after testing 3-4 times) should confirm the medium term bottom where again you will see buyer volumes increasing. One can safely expect this range to hold for 2009 at least.
The only thing that is being confirmed right now is that we have now stopped falling. Next step is to confirm the range before the next bull run starts. They stay bottoms in the markets are made in Panic. I think that panic has already been created in October and from now on, we will only have higher bottoms and higher tops.
Next, people are now waiting to decide on a range on Nifty. This range has to be determined as an elongated period of consolidation has to happen in the markets. At top of the range, you will find the buyer volumes decreasing and then only there will be some correction to lower levels. The levels that we hold on to on the lower side (after testing 3-4 times) should confirm the medium term bottom where again you will see buyer volumes increasing. One can safely expect this range to hold for 2009 at least.
The only thing that is being confirmed right now is that we have now stopped falling. Next step is to confirm the range before the next bull run starts. They stay bottoms in the markets are made in Panic. I think that panic has already been created in October and from now on, we will only have higher bottoms and higher tops.
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
Nifty Views for April 8, 2009
Nifty is expected to open in the negative in line with global cues. Intraday players will not get the opportunity to sell because of gap up opening. Stop Loss for any short position should be 3255 today. Good support for Nifty exists at 3150-3165 range. Below 3150, nifty may try to fill the gap it left behind between 3060 to 3155. Positional traders should exit their longs if Nifty gives a close below 3160 today.
Nifty Resistance at 3255-3275-3305-3345. Support at 3205-3185-3165-3125
www.niftypower.webs.com
Nifty Resistance at 3255-3275-3305-3345. Support at 3205-3185-3165-3125
www.niftypower.webs.com
Monday, April 6, 2009
Nifty is expected to open positive again on strong global cues. However, longs have to be cautious as there can be some amount of profit booking due to holidays in the coming week. Intraday players can buy above 3270 for a target of 3298-3335. Below 3265, next support exist at 3240-3210-3190-3165.
Nifty resistance at 3265-3298-3335-3350. Support at 3240-3210-3190-3165
Nifty resistance at 3265-3298-3335-3350. Support at 3240-3210-3190-3165
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