12 May - Nifty View

Nifty has been consolidating in the range of 5470 to 5600 for the past six days now. Break of this range will give the next trending move. The consensus seems to be for the downside, but market seldom follows consensus. Hence, let the market tell which way it wants to go, before taking the next move. Once this range is broken, these 130 points range will become very difficult for Nifty to scale back. Positional trades can be opened outside of this range with tight stoplosses of 20-25 points.

The Options OI table is given below:

The Options OI table gives the same picture. 5500/5600 are the levels which the Bulls and the Bears are fighting for. 5400 and below are the supports, and 5700 and above are the resistances. Once this level of 5500/5600 is resolved, the OI should decrease from the losing side. That should give us more indication of the size of upmove/ downmove expected outside of this range.

For today, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot comes at 5595/ 5600 levels. Breakout above this, will lead to short covering till 5626/5630-5660 levels and higher. On the downside, support for Nifty Spot exists at 5550/5540 levels. Below this, it will slide towards 5520-5500 and 5470 levels. As written earlier also, 5470 to 5600 is the trading range. Till it stays within this range, trade for small gains with tight stoplosses.

12 May - Nifty Spot resistance at 5595-5625-5660-5695. Support at 5545-5520-5500-5470 - www.niftypower.com

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6 May: Nifty View

The sell-off continued in Nifty today, after one day of minor pause yesterday. As given in earlier post, Sell on Rallies should be the mantra, rather than going short on breakdowns. This is to ensure a good Risk: Reward Ratio as the market is trading in Oversold region in almost all time frames.

The Options OI table is given below:

The Options OI data points show 5500 and 5600 as the battleground levels for the time being. Hence, any rally if it comes, should not be expected to go much beyond 5600 for the time being. Supports exit at 5400 and below levels. Resistance exists at 5700 and above levels.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot comes 5475/5480 and 5495 levels. Above this, Nifty will show a retest of todays breakdown level of 5515-5530 levels. If it manages to trade and sustain above 5530 for sometime, then we will see a quick short covering rally from the Bears. Till then, it is better to sell on rallies and build short positions. On the downside, immediate support for Nifty spot comes at 5420-5425 levels. Below this, it will slip to lower levels of 5395, 5370 and 5355 levels. Create short positions at Resistances during rallies. Shorting on break of supports may be profitable, but carries a very high risk, as now anytime we may see quick bounce from oversold levels.

6 May: Nifty spot resistance at 5475-5495-5515-5535. Support at 5450-5420-5395-5370 - www.niftypower.com

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4 May: Nifty View

Nifty sold off heavily today after the RBI rate hike news, finishing midway between 5500 an 5600. By doing this, it has closed below its important support zone of 5600/5610. Now, till it stays below this level, consider the Medium term trend to be down.

The Options OI table is given below:

The Options OI table show the Huge confidence of Bears at the moment. More than 1Cr of Calls were added today at various strikes. Approx. 60 lacs at 5600 CE and 5700 CE alone. On the other hand, the Bulls were much more subdued. Covering was seen at 5700 PE and higher levels, while some addition was done by the Bulls at 5600 PE and below levels. The Options OI data at present suggest a bounce at least till 5600+ levels and maximum till 5700 levels. Climbing above 5700 would be really tough for now. Todays high of 5710 would be the trend deciding level now in case the Bulls try any reversal.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty Spot comes at 5575/5580 and then at 5610 levels. Above 5610, we will see a relief rally towards 5630-5655 and 5690 Nifty Spot. This rally can be used to build Positional Shorts with stoploss above 5720 closing basis now. On the downside, immediate support for Nifty spot now comes at 5550 levels. Below this, next supports come at 5515/5505 and 5475 levels. As Nifty is trading at oversold levels, Selling on all rallies will be more safe than selling on breakdown of supports at this point.

4 May: Nifty Spot resistance at 5610-5630-5655-5690. Support at 5550-5515-5475-5450 - www.niftypower.com

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