10 Feb: Nifty View

In Yesterday's post, the upside resistance for Nifty spot was given as 5335-5340. Actual high made = 5339.45. For downside trades, it was given that "...On the downside,immediate support comes at 5285-5280 levels, below which it will slide towards 5260-5240 and lower..". Nifty gave two opportunities for the short trade, one in the morning and then again in the afternoon, both times achieving lower targets below 5280 Spot.

Today's action in the afternoon would have given a ray of hope to the Bulls. After many days, some sort of support was seen in a falling market, and Nifty recovered 50+ points from the lows of the day. Today's low of 5225 would be an important level to watch for any further downside from here.

The Options Open Interest table tell the story of the sort of volatile month that we are having. Neither the Bulls, nor the Bears are ready to add Calls or Puts in a major way. The table is given below:


The battlezone between the Bulls and the Bears seems to have shifted lower to 5300 and 5400 levels. 5500 and above are the resistances and 5200 and below are the supports. From the table, a range for the Nifty can be deduced to be 5160 to 5445.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty spot comes at 5295-5305 levels. If Nifty manages to stay above these for sometime, it will move higher toward 5320-5340 level, where again it will face selling pressure. Trading above 5340 would give the Nifty a short term push for even higher levels of 55365/5370. On the downside, support for Nifty spot comes at 5250-5245 levels. Below this, Nifty would again test today's low of 5225, break of which would lead it to 5205-5170 levels.

10 Feb - Nifty spot resistance at 5300-5320-5340-5365. Support at 5280-5245-5225-5205 - www.niftypower.com

9 Feb:Nifty View - End of Bullmarket or End of Correction?

In Yesterday's Nifty View, 5425 was the resistance and 5370 was the support which was given for Nifty Spot. It opened right at the resistance zone, moved lower to break the lower support, and then fell till our final target of 5300 on the downside.

Today, Nifty has broken some very important supports and closed below it. Has the India story ended? Is this the end of the bull market? OR.... is it the end of the correction that is going on. Remember, in the markets, "When the Last Bull becomes a Bear, BUY." Buy has the last Bull really turned Bear or are there still some Bulls remaining? Answer to all the above questions is simple - Don't Bother! We are traders. Don't worry about what the market is Going to Do. Believe in what the market IS Doing. Believe on the screen. Trade all the breakouts and the breakdowns. Even with whipsaws, the ratio of success to failure will be much higher.

Coming back to our trading plan for tomorrow. The Options Open Interest table is given below:


The data shows big addition in 5400 CE, and simultaneous covering in 5400 PE. This level is the new battle ground between the Bulls and the Bears with almost equal open interest in the calls and the puts. On any revisit to the breakdown level of 5360-5370,keep an eye on the open interest in 5400 PE to get an idea of market direction. 5300 and below are the supports, while 5500 and above are the resistances, as suggested by the Options data.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty spot comes at 5335-5340 levels, above which, it will try to attempt 5360-5385 and 5400 levels.On the downside,immediate support comes at 5285-5280 levels, below which it will slide towards 5260-5240 and lower. Trade cautiously.

9 Feb - Nifty spot resistance at 5335-5360-5385-5400. Support at 5280-5255-5240-5215 - www.niftypower.com

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8 Feb: Nifty View

In Yesterday's Nifty View, it was given that "...immediate resistance for Nifty Spot comes at 5420-5425 level, above which, it will try and reach 5445-5460 levels..". Whole day Nifty remained rangebound between our first resistance of 5420 and our first support of 5395. Then it finally broke out above 5420 to make a high at 5440 levels, before slipping again below 5400 and closing Flat. Trading by the levels would have given any trader easy 20+ points even in this rangebound market. Also, as mentioned in the chart above, Nifty did not give any hourly close below 5400/5395 today. Going forward, any hourly close below this level would be the first sign of further weakness. Keep watch.

The Options Open Interest table is given below:


The data presents the same story as yesterday. 5400 is the support and 5500 and above offer weak resistances. There is not much difference in Open interest of Calls and Puts at 5500 and 5600 levels. Hence, whenever we see a short covering rally, it can easily take Nifty back to its earlier breakdown point of 5560-5565 levels, which is a good 150+ points from todays close. On the downside, the moment the writers of 5400 PE start to cover, it will cause real panic for further steep falls. 5350 may be that level, break of which can cause that panic. This gives us a range of 200 points from 5350 to 5550 to trade. Positional traders trade this range till we get a confirmed Breakout/ Breakdown from these levels.

For tomorrow, immediate resistance for Nifty spot comes at 5425-5430 levels. Above this, it will again try to reach 5445, 5470 and 5500 levels. On the downside, support for Nifty Spot comes at 5370-5375 levels. Break of these would test lower levels of 5350, 5330 and 5300 levels. At the extreme support and resistance levels, we would expect to see some quick volatile moves. Trade cautiously.

8 Feb: Nifty spot resistance at 5430-5445-5470-5500. Support at 5390-5370-5355-5330 - www.niftypower.com

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